Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Konrad-Zuse-Str. 1, 18057, Rostock, Germany.
Federal Institute for Population Research, Wiesbaden, Germany.
Demography. 2019 Feb;56(1):169-199. doi: 10.1007/s13524-018-0737-9.
Most studies on the fertility transition have focused either on macro-level trends or on micro-level patterns with limited geographic scope. Much less attention has been given to the interplay between individual characteristics and contextual conditions, including geographic location. Here we investigate the relevance of geography and socioeconomic status for understanding fertility variation in the initial phase of the Swedish fertility transition. We conduct spatially sensitive multilevel analyses on full-count individual-level census data. Our results show that the elite constituted the vanguard group in the fertility decline and that the shift in fertility behavior occurred quickly among them in virtually all parts of Sweden. Other socioeconomic status groups experienced the decline with some delay, and their decline patterns were more clustered around early centers of the decline. Long-distance migrants initially had higher fertility than people living close to their birthplace. However, as the fertility decline unfolded, this advantage was either reduced or reversed. This supports the view that migration and fertility are linked in this process. Our results confirm that socioeconomic status differences were of considerable relevance in structuring the fertility transition. The degree to which spatial distance fostered spatial variation in the fertility decline seems to have been negatively correlated with socioeconomic status, with the pattern of decline among the elite showing the lowest degree of spatial variation.
大多数关于生育转型的研究要么关注宏观层面的趋势，要么关注微观层面的模式，且地理范围有限。很少有人关注个人特征和包括地理位置在内的背景条件之间的相互作用。在这里，我们研究了地理和社会经济地位对理解瑞典生育转型初始阶段生育差异的重要性。我们对全计数个体层面普查数据进行了空间敏感的多层次分析。研究结果表明，精英群体构成了生育下降的先锋群体，他们的生育行为在瑞典几乎所有地区都迅速发生转变。其他社会经济地位群体的生育下降略有延迟，而且下降模式更集中在下降的早期中心。长途移民最初的生育率高于出生地附近的人。然而，随着生育率的下降，这种优势要么减少，要么被逆转。这支持了这样一种观点，即移民和生育在这一过程中是相互关联的。我们的研究结果证实，社会经济地位差异在构建生育转型方面具有相当大的重要性。空间距离在多大程度上促进了生育率下降的空间差异，似乎与社会经济地位呈负相关，精英群体的下降模式显示出最低程度的空间差异。
