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哪些因素导致了全球温室气体排放的增长?来自 40 个国家的证据。

What causes growth of global greenhouse gas emissions? Evidence from 40 countries.

机构信息

School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Hui Long Guan, Chang Ping District, Beijing 102206, China; State Key Laboratory of Alternate Electrical Power System with Renewable Energy Sources, North China Electric Power University, Hui Long Guan, Chang Ping District, Beijing 102206, China.

School of Environment & Natural Resources, Renmin University of China, Zhongguancun Road, Haidian District, Beijing 100872, China.

出版信息

Sci Total Environ. 2019 Apr 15;661:750-766. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.197. Epub 2019 Jan 16.

Abstract

With the growing attention on global warming, understanding the main drivers of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is important. This paper investigated the contribution of intrinsic reasons for consumption-based GHG emissions growth using structural decomposition analysis based on world input-output database from 1995 to 2009. The drivers are decomposed into five sub-effects at both country-level and industry-level. The results are as follows: (1) The rapid global economic growth is the dominating driving force. However, a decreasing emission intensity caused by the improvement of energy efficiency and technology innovation can contribute significantly to emission reduction; (2) Key factors contributing to GHG emissions vary in different country groups. The investment effects in developing countries are overwhelming those in developed countries. Instead, the net export effects in developed countries are greater than them in developing countries, which means that developing countries are becoming pollution haven; (3) China and India are still the key contributors of CO growth and CH growth. In developing countries, the total effects of NO emissions changes are positive, which is mainly because agriculture plays an important role in these countries; (4) Cluster analysis depicts the relationship between growth of GHG emissions and gross domestic outputs in different countries.

摘要

随着人们对全球变暖的关注度不断提高,了解温室气体(GHG)排放的主要驱动因素非常重要。本文利用基于世界投入产出数据库的结构分解分析,从 1995 年到 2009 年,研究了消费型 GHG 排放增长的内在原因的贡献。这些驱动因素在国家和行业层面上被分解为五个子效应。结果如下:(1)全球经济的快速增长是主要驱动力。然而,能源效率的提高和技术创新带来的排放强度下降,对减排有显著贡献;(2)不同国家群体中,导致 GHG 排放的关键因素有所不同。发展中国家的投资效应大于发达国家,而发达国家的净出口效应大于发展中国家,这意味着发展中国家正在成为污染避难所;(3)中国和印度仍然是 CO2 和 CH4 增长的主要贡献者。在发展中国家,NOx 排放变化的总效应为正,这主要是因为农业在这些国家中起着重要作用;(4)聚类分析描绘了不同国家 GHG 排放增长与国内生产总值之间的关系。

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