Champeecharoensuk Arthit, Dhakal Shobhakar, Chollacoop Nuwong, Phdungsilp Aumnad
Department of Energy, Environment, and Climate Change, School of Environment, Resource and Development, Asian Institute of Technology, Thailand.
Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Research Team Leader, National Energy Technology Center (ENTEC), National Science and Technology Development Agency (NSTDA), Thailand.
Heliyon. 2024 Jan 9;10(2):e24206. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e24206. eCollection 2024 Jan 30.
Domestic aviation is a swiftly expanding contributor to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Presently, economic volatility and the Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) crisis have resulted in the decline of domestic aviation, but domestic aviation is rapidly recovering in many countries. However, from a GHG emissions viewpoint, the domestic aviation sector is largely unenforced even though the International Civil Aviation Organization's (ICAO) Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) provision for international aviation is currently in place. Accordingly, the knowledge base on emissions and their drivers from domestic aviation is weak, especially in developing countries, thus hindering an evidence-based policy debate. In this context, we have estimated and analyzed the pre-COVID-19 GHG emissions and their trends from commercial domestic aviation in Thailand; and provided insights on the role of key drivers that influence GHG emissions that are expected to be useful not only for Thailand but also for other developing countries. Emissions are estimated following Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Tier-II. Specifically, activity-based landing/take-off (LTO) cycle and cruise. This is compared to the Tier-I method, and key drivers were analyzed using an index decomposition method. The total annual average GHG emissions for all LTO cycles and cruises of commercial domestic aviation for 2015-2020 was 2254 Th. tonnes of CO-eq. During the LTO cycle of the aircraft, GHG emissions were at an average of 983 Th. tonnes of CO-eq. Additionally, during the cruise stage, emissions averaged 1270 Th. tonnes of CO-eq. The choice of accounting methods (i.e., IPCC Tier II vs. Tier I) seems to have had only nominal implications. Our analysis showed that, in the 2008-2020 period, the aviation activity effect and economic growth were the key decisive factors in this sector's GHG emissions growth. It was followed by the fuel energy intensity levels and the population effect in descending order of impact. These findings have significant ramifications for present and future policies aimed at decreasing GHG emissions, aiding Thailand in achieving its climate targets by 2050, and enhancing energy efficiency as the domestic aviation market adapts.
国内航空业对全球温室气体（GHG）排放的贡献正在迅速扩大。目前，经济波动和冠状病毒病（COVID-19）危机导致了国内航空业的下滑，但在许多国家，国内航空业正在迅速复苏。然而，从温室气体排放的角度来看，尽管国际民用航空组织（ICAO）的国际航空碳抵消和减排计划（CORSIA）目前已适用于国际航空，但国内航空部门在很大程度上仍未受到监管。因此，关于国内航空业排放及其驱动因素的知识基础薄弱，尤其是在发展中国家，这阻碍了基于证据的政策辩论。在此背景下，我们对泰国国内商业航空在COVID-19之前的温室气体排放及其趋势进行了估计和分析；并对影响温室气体排放的关键驱动因素的作用提供了见解，这些见解预计不仅对泰国而且对其他发展中国家都有用。排放按照政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）的二级方法进行估算。具体而言，基于活动的着陆/起飞（LTO）周期和巡航。将其与一级方法进行比较，并使用指数分解法分析关键驱动因素。2015-2020年国内商业航空所有LTO周期和巡航的年度温室气体排放总量平均为2254千吨二氧化碳当量。在飞机的LTO周期内，温室气体排放平均为983千吨二氧化碳当量。此外，在巡航阶段，排放量平均为1270千吨二氧化碳当量。核算方法的选择（即IPCC二级与一级）似乎只有名义上的影响。我们的分析表明，在2008-2020年期间，航空活动效应和经济增长是该部门温室气体排放增长的关键决定性因素。其次是燃料能源强度水平和人口效应，影响程度依次递减。这些发现对当前和未来旨在减少温室气体排放、帮助泰国实现2050年气候目标以及随着国内航空市场的适应提高能源效率的政策具有重大影响。
