Netherlands Institute for the Study of Crime and Law Enforcement (NSCR), Amsterdam, the Netherlands.
Department of Spatial Economics, School of Business and Economics, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands.
PLoS One. 2019 Jan 30;14(1):e0210733. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0210733. eCollection 2019.
Knowing where crime is likely to happen can help prevent it. Here I investigate whether two basic mechanisms of human mobility-preferential return and spatial exploration-explain and predict where offenders commit future crimes. A sample of 843 adolescents reported their hourly whereabouts during four days. In line with findings from other sources and populations, their locations were concentrated and predictable. During the subsequent four years, 70 of the 843 were apprehended for committing one or more crimes. Compared to others, these 70 future offenders had visited slightly more different locations. However, their action radius and the predictability of their whereabouts had been very similar to those who would not become offenders. The offenders perpetrated most of their crimes around places they had visited before, including places where they previously offended. These findings show that the predictability of human mobility applies to offending and to offenders as well, and helps us understand and forecast where they will commit future crimes. They may prove particularly useful in criminal investigations, as they suggest that police should generally prioritize suspects who are familiar with the location of the crime and its environs, either because of their legal routine activities or because of their prior offences.
了解犯罪可能发生的地方有助于预防犯罪。在这里，我调查了人类移动的两种基本机制——优先返回和空间探索——是否可以解释和预测犯罪者未来会在哪里犯罪。我对 843 名青少年进行了为期四天的每小时行踪调查。与其他来源和人群的发现一致，他们的位置集中且可预测。在随后的四年里，843 名青少年中有 70 人因犯有一项或多项罪行而被捕。与其他人相比，这 70 名未来的犯罪者访问了稍微不同的地方。然而，他们的活动半径和行踪的可预测性与那些不会成为罪犯的人非常相似。犯罪者大多在他们以前去过的地方，包括他们以前犯罪的地方实施犯罪。这些发现表明，人类移动的可预测性适用于犯罪和犯罪者，这有助于我们了解和预测他们未来会在哪里犯罪。它们在刑事调查中可能特别有用，因为它们表明警方通常应优先调查熟悉犯罪地点及其周边环境的嫌疑人，无论是因为他们的法律日常活动还是因为他们之前的犯罪。
