National Institute of Environmental Health and Related Product Safety, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100021, China.
Shenzhen Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shenzhen 518055, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2019 Jan 31;16(3):401. doi: 10.3390/ijerph16030401.
: China is at its most important stage of air pollution control. Research on the association between air pollutants and human health is very important and necessary. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the association between PM concentrations and residents' mortality and to compare the effect of PM on the different diseases, accidental deaths, sex or age of residents from high polluted areas with less polluted areas. : The semi-parametric generalized additive model (GAM) with Poisson distribution of time series analysis was used. The excess risk (ER) of mortality with the incremental increase of 10 µg/m³ in PM concentration was calculated. Concentration-response relationship curves and autocorrelation between different lags of PM were also evaluated. : PM exposure was significantly associated with the mortality of residents. The strongest ERs per 10 µg/m³ increase in PM were 0.74% (95% CI: 0.11⁻1.38%) for all-cause, 0.67% (95% CI: 0.01⁻1.33%) for non-accidental, 1.81% (95% CI: 0.22⁻3.42%) for accidental, 3.04% (95% CI: 0.60⁻5.55%) for total respiratory disease, 6.38% (95% CI: 2.78⁻10.11%) for chronic lower respiratory disease (CLRD), 8.24% (95% CI: 3.53⁻13.17%) for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), 1.04% (95% CI: 0.25⁻1.84%) for male and 1.32% (95% CI: 0.46⁻2.19%) for elderly. Furthermore, important information on the concentration-response relationship curves was provided. : PM can increase the risk of residents' mortality, even in places with less air pollution and developed economy in China.
中国正处于空气污染治理的关键阶段。研究空气污染物与人类健康之间的关系非常重要且必要。本研究旨在评估 PM 浓度与居民死亡率之间的关系,并比较高污染地区与低污染地区 PM 对不同疾病、意外死亡、性别或年龄居民的影响。
采用时间序列分析的半参数广义相加模型(GAM)和泊松分布。计算 PM 浓度每增加 10μg/m³时死亡率的超额风险(ER)。还评估了浓度-反应关系曲线和 PM 不同滞后之间的自相关。
PM 暴露与居民死亡率显著相关。PM 每增加 10μg/m³,所有原因死亡率的最强 ER 为 0.74%(95%CI:0.11⁻1.38%),非意外死亡率为 0.67%(95%CI:0.01⁻1.33%),意外死亡率为 1.81%(95%CI:0.22⁻3.42%),总呼吸道疾病死亡率为 3.04%(95%CI:0.60⁻5.55%),慢性下呼吸道疾病(CLRD)死亡率为 6.38%(95%CI:2.78⁻10.11%),慢性阻塞性肺疾病(COPD)死亡率为 8.24%(95%CI:3.53⁻13.17%),男性死亡率为 1.04%(95%CI:0.25⁻1.84%),老年居民死亡率为 1.32%(95%CI:0.46⁻2.19%)。此外,还提供了浓度-反应关系曲线的重要信息。
PM 可增加居民死亡率的风险,即使在中国空气污染程度较低且经济发达的地区也是如此。