Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China; CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China; Kathmandu Center for Research and Education, Chinese Academy of Sciences - Tribhuvan University, Kirtipur, Kathmandu, Nepal.
Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China; CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China; Kathmandu Center for Research and Education, Chinese Academy of Sciences - Tribhuvan University, Kirtipur, Kathmandu, Nepal; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China.
J Environ Manage. 2019 Apr 1;235:432-441. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2019.01.091. Epub 2019 Jan 30.
Historical trends show that the total area of agricultural land in Nepal has changed markedly over time, but few studies have addressed the causative drivers underlying this change. Evaluating the perceptions of farmers is an effective tool for addressing this issue because it reflects the full range of drivers associated with changes in land use. This study utilizes historical agricultural area, population, and climate data for 1910-2010, combined with a series of applied household surveys and focus group discussions to assess farmers' perceptions of these changes and identify the major drivers. The paired t-test was employed to measure differences between various groups of drivers. The total area of agricultural land in Nepal has expanded rapidly since 1910, more intensively in the southern (Tarai) and central (Hill) ecological regions of the country, and has decreased slightly near large cities in recent decades. Farmers' perceptions show that socioeconomic variables were considered to be the crucial drivers of changes in agricultural land use. The three other major drivers were grouped as: neighborhood, climate-topography, and policy drivers. In particular, farmers pointed to the high level of population growth (93.96%) as the main factor underlying the changes, and the majority of drivers are associated with this variable. Access to roads (77.36%), urbanization (33.77%), government policies (23.58%), and remittance impact (16.79%) are other notable triggering variables. The paired t-test results equating variables from different groups of drivers and ecological regions indicate varied significance (p-values range from 0.004 to 0.983). Our analysis confirms that the synergy between social and natural observations can be integrated to obtain research findings that identify scientific and social issues. The interplay between the drivers should be emphasized in developing plans for sustainable agricultural land use management.
历史趋势表明，尼泊尔的农业用地总面积随着时间的推移发生了显著变化，但很少有研究探讨导致这种变化的驱动因素。评估农民的看法是解决这个问题的有效工具，因为它反映了与土地利用变化相关的所有驱动因素。本研究利用了 1910-2010 年的历史农业面积、人口和气候数据，结合一系列应用的家庭调查和焦点小组讨论，评估了农民对这些变化的看法，并确定了主要驱动因素。配对 t 检验用于衡量不同驱动因素组之间的差异。自 1910 年以来，尼泊尔的农业用地总面积迅速扩大，在该国南部（特莱）和中部（丘陵）生态区更为集中，而在最近几十年，靠近大城市的地区略有减少。农民的看法表明，社会经济变量被认为是农业土地利用变化的关键驱动因素。另外三个主要驱动因素被分为：邻里、气候地形和政策驱动因素。特别是，农民指出人口增长率（93.96%）是导致这些变化的主要因素，而且大多数驱动因素都与这一变量有关。道路可达性（77.36%）、城市化（33.77%）、政府政策（23.58%）和汇款影响（16.79%）是其他值得注意的触发变量。对来自不同驱动因素组和生态区的变量进行配对 t 检验的结果表明存在不同的显著程度（p 值范围从 0.004 到 0.983）。我们的分析证实，社会和自然观察之间的协同作用可以整合起来，以获得识别科学和社会问题的研究结果。在制定可持续农业土地利用管理计划时，应强调驱动因素之间的相互作用。
