Department of Land Resource Management, School of Public Administration, China University of Geosciences (Wuhan), Wuhan 430074, China.
School of Politics, Law and Public Administration, Hubei University, Wuhan 430074, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2020 Sep 21;17(18):6910. doi: 10.3390/ijerph17186910.
Scientifically characterizing the spatial-temporal distribution characteristics of agricultural land use intensity and analyzing its driving factors are of great significance to the formulation of relevant agricultural land use intensity management policies, the realization of food safety and health, and the achievement of sustainable development goals. Taking Hubei Province as an example, and taking counties as the basic evaluation unit, this paper establishes an agricultural land use intensity evaluation system, explores the spatial autocorrelation of agricultural land use intensity in each county and analyzes the driving factors of agricultural land use intensity. The results show that the agricultural land use intensity in Hubei Province increased as a whole from 2000 to 2016, and the spatial agglomeration about the agricultural land use intensity in Hubei Province experienced a process of continuous growth and a fluctuating decline; the maximum of the Global Moran's I was 0.430174 (in 2007) and the minimum was 0.148651 (in 2001). In terms of Local Moran's I, H-H agglomeration units were mainly concentrated in two regions: One comprising the cities of Huanggang, Huangshi and Ezhou, and the other the cities of Xiangyang and Suizhou; the phenomenon is particularly obvious after 2005. On the other hand, factors such as the multiple cropping index (MCI) that reflect farmers' willingness to engage in agricultural production have a great impact on agricultural land use intensity, the influence of the structure of the industry on agricultural land use intensity varies with the degree of influence of different industries on farmers' income, and agricultural fiscal expenditure (AFE) has not effectively promoted the intensification of agricultural land use. The present research has important significance for enhancing insights into the sustainable improvement of agricultural land use intensity and for realizing risk control of agricultural land use and development.
科学刻画农业土地利用强度的时空分布特征，并分析其驱动因素，对于制定相关农业土地利用强度管理政策、实现粮食安全与健康、达成可持续发展目标具有重要意义。本文以湖北省为例，以县域为基本评价单元，构建农业土地利用强度评价体系，探讨各县级单元农业土地利用强度的空间自相关，并分析农业土地利用强度的驱动因素。结果表明：2000—2016 年湖北省农业土地利用强度整体呈上升趋势，湖北省农业土地利用强度空间集聚经历了不断增强和波动下降的过程；全局 Moran's I 最大值为 0.430174（2007 年），最小值为 0.148651（2001 年）。从局部 Moran's I 来看，H-H 集聚单元主要集中在两个区域：一是以黄冈、黄石和鄂州三市为中心的集聚区，另一个是以襄阳和随州为中心的集聚区；这种集聚现象在 2005 年以后表现得尤为明显。另一方面，农民从事农业生产意愿的反映指标如复种指数（MCI）对农业土地利用强度影响较大，产业结构对农业土地利用强度的影响因不同产业对农民收入的影响程度而异，农业财政支出（AFE）并没有有效促进农业土地利用强度的提高。本研究对于深入了解农业土地利用强度的可持续提升以及实现农业土地利用和发展风险控制具有重要意义。
