Bayarri M J, Benjamin Daniel J, Berger James O, Sellke Thomas M
Universitat de València, Spain.
University of Southern California, United States.
J Math Psychol. 2016 Jun;72:90-103. doi: 10.1016/j.jmp.2015.12.007. Epub 2016 Feb 5.
Much of science is (rightly or wrongly) driven by hypothesis testing. Even in situations where the hypothesis testing paradigm is correct, the common practice of basing inferences solely on -values has been under intense criticism for over 50 years. We propose, as an alternative, the use of the odds of a correct rejection of the null hypothesis to incorrect rejection. Both pre-experimental versions (involving the power and Type I error) and post-experimental versions (depending on the actual data) are considered. Implementations are provided that range from depending only on the -value to consideration of full Bayesian analysis. A surprise is that all implementations - even the full Bayesian analysis - have complete frequentist justification. Versions of our proposal can be implemented that require only minor modifications to existing practices yet overcome some of their most severe shortcomings.
许多科学研究(无论正确与否)都是由假设检验驱动的。即使在假设检验范式正确的情况下,仅基于P值进行推断的常见做法在过去50多年里一直受到强烈批评。作为一种替代方法,我们建议使用正确拒绝原假设与错误拒绝原假设的概率。我们考虑了实验前版本(涉及检验功效和I类错误)和实验后版本(取决于实际数据)。我们提供了从仅依赖P值到考虑完全贝叶斯分析的各种实现方法。令人惊讶的是,所有实现方法——甚至是完全贝叶斯分析——都有完整的频率主义依据。我们的提议的版本可以通过对现有做法进行微小修改来实现,同时克服它们一些最严重的缺点。