University College London, UK.
University College London, UK.
Sci Total Environ. 2019 Apr 10;660:1108-1134. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.12.430. Epub 2019 Jan 6.
58% of Nairobi's population live in informal settlements in extremely poor conditions. Household air pollution is one of the leading causes of premature death and disease in these settlements. Regulatory frameworks and government budgets for household air pollution do not exist and humanitarian organisations remain largely inattentive and inactive on this issue. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the effectiveness of potential indoor-air related policies, as identified together with various stakeholders, in lowering household air pollution in Nairobi's slums. Applying a novel approach in this context, we used participatory system dynamics within a series of stakeholder workshops in Nairobi, to map and model the complex dynamics surrounding household air pollution and draw up possible policy options. Workshop participants included community members, local and national policy-makers, representatives from parastatals, NGOs and academics. Simulation modelling demonstrates that under business-as-usual, the current trend of slowly improving indoor air quality will soon come to a halt. If we aim to continue to substantially reduce household PM levels, a drastic acceleration in the uptake of clean stoves is needed. We identified the potentially high impact of redirecting investment towards household air quality monitoring and health impact assessment studies, therefore raising the public's and the government's awareness and concern about this issue and its health consequences. Such investments, due to their self-reinforcing nature, can entail high returns on investment, but are likely to give 'worse-before-better' results due to the time lags involved. We also discuss the usefulness of the participatory process within similar multi-stakeholder contexts. With important implications for such settings this work advances our understanding of the efficacy of high-level policy options for reducing household air pollution. It makes a case for the usefulness of participatory system dynamics for such complex, multi-stakeholder, environmental issues.
58%的内罗毕居民生活在条件极差的非正规住区。家庭空气污染是这些住区居民过早死亡和患病的主要原因之一。针对家庭空气污染的监管框架和政府预算并不存在，人道主义组织在这一问题上基本上也不够关注和不够积极。本文旨在评估与各种利益攸关方共同确定的潜在室内空气相关政策在降低内罗毕贫民窟家庭空气污染方面的有效性。在这方面，我们采用了一种新颖的方法，在内罗毕的一系列利益攸关方研讨会上应用参与式系统动力学，以绘制和模拟家庭空气污染所涉及的复杂动态，并制定可能的政策选择。研讨会参与者包括社区成员、地方和国家决策者、来自半官方机构、非政府组织和学术界的代表。模拟表明，在一切照旧的情况下，目前室内空气质量缓慢改善的趋势将很快停止。如果我们要继续大幅降低家庭 PM 水平，就需要大幅加快清洁炉灶的普及速度。我们发现，将投资转向家庭空气质量监测和健康影响评估研究可能会产生巨大影响，从而提高公众和政府对这一问题及其健康后果的认识和关注。由于具有自我强化的性质，此类投资的投资回报率可能很高，但由于涉及的时间滞后，可能会出现“先恶化，后改善”的结果。我们还讨论了在类似多方利益攸关方环境问题中采用参与式进程的有用性。这项工作对这些环境问题具有重要的启示，它增进了我们对减少家庭空气污染的高级政策选择的有效性的理解。它证明了参与式系统动力学在解决复杂的多方利益攸关方环境问题方面的有效性。
