Population Health Department, QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute, Herston, QLD, Australia.
Cancer Council Queensland, Fortitude Valley, QLD, Australia.
Int J Cancer. 2019 Dec 1;145(11):2944-2953. doi: 10.1002/ijc.32204. Epub 2019 Feb 25.
The International Agency for Research on Cancer first concluded that alcohol causes cancer in humans in 1988. The World Cancer Research Fund has declared that alcohol causes cancer of the oral cavity, pharynx, larynx, oesophagus (squamous cell carcinoma), female breast, colon, rectum, stomach and liver. It recommended that alcohol be avoided altogether to prevent cancer. We aimed to quantify the impact of reducing alcohol consumption on future cancer incidence in Australia. We used PREVENT 3.01 simulation modelling software to estimate the proportion of cancers that could potentially be prevented over a 25-year period under two hypothetical intervention scenarios and two latency periods (20 and 30 years). Under a scenario where alcohol consumption abruptly ceases, we estimated up to 4% of alcohol-related cancers could be avoided over a 25-year period (49,500 cancers, depending on assumed latency). If the maximum consumption of all Australian adults was ≤20 g/day (two Australian standard drinks), up to 2% of alcohol-related cancers could be avoided (~29,600 cancers). The maximum proportions were higher for men (6% for no alcohol consumption; 5% for ≤20 g/day) than women (3%; 1%). The proportion avoidable was highest for oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma (17% no alcohol consumption; 9% ≤20 g/day), followed by cancers of the oral cavity (12%; 5%) and pharynx (11%; 5%). The cancer sites with the highest numbers of potentially avoidable cases were colon in men (11,500; 9,900) and breast in women (14,400; 4,100). Successful interventions to reduce alcohol intake could lead to significant reductions in cancer incidence.
国际癌症研究机构于 1988 年首次得出酒精会导致人类患癌的结论。世界癌症研究基金会已经宣布酒精会导致口腔癌、咽癌、喉癌、食道癌（鳞状细胞癌）、乳腺癌、结肠癌、直肠癌、胃癌和肝癌。该基金会建议为了预防癌症，应完全避免饮酒。我们旨在量化减少澳大利亚的饮酒量对未来癌症发病率的影响。我们使用 PREVENT 3.01 模拟建模软件，根据两种假设干预情景和两种潜伏期（20 年和 30 年），估算在 25 年内潜在可预防的癌症比例。在饮酒量突然停止的情况下，我们估计在 25 年内，多达 4%的与酒精相关的癌症可以避免（49500 例癌症，具体取决于假设的潜伏期）。如果所有澳大利亚成年人的最大饮酒量≤20g/天（两杯澳大利亚标准饮料），则多达 2%的与酒精相关的癌症可以避免（~29600 例癌症）。对于男性（不饮酒时为 6%；最大饮酒量≤20g/天时为 5%），最高比例高于女性（3%；1%）。可避免的比例最高的是食管鳞状细胞癌（不饮酒时为 17%；最大饮酒量≤20g/天时为 9%），其次是口腔癌（12%；5%）和咽癌（11%；5%）。潜在可避免病例数最多的癌症部位是男性的结肠癌（11500 例；9900 例）和女性的乳腺癌（14400 例；4100 例）。成功减少饮酒量的干预措施可能会导致癌症发病率的显著降低。
