Nutritional Epidemiology Research Team, University of Paris, Sorbonne Paris Nord University, Bobigny, France.
Santé publique France, Saint Maurice, France.
Addiction. 2021 Sep;116(9):2316-2325. doi: 10.1111/add.15426. Epub 2021 Feb 18.
To predict the effects of perfect adherence to the French alcohol consumption guidelines, a maximum of 10 standard alcoholic drinks per week with no more than two standard alcoholic drinks per day, during a 36-year period (2014-50).
This simulation study is an adaption of the Sheffield Alcohol Policy Model. The dose-response relationship between alcohol consumption and alcohol-attributable cancer risks was defined by cancer site-specific risk functions, each modelled as a continuous risk. These estimates were used to compute the potential impact fraction (PIF) associated with alcohol consumption by cancer site.
The French general adult population during a 36-year period (2014-50).
For the baseline scenario, the current distribution of consumption levels, the counterfactual scenario and perfect adherence to the French alcohol consumption guidelines, we generated for each gender and age group 1000 randomly distributed alcohol consumption values from calibrated group-specific gamma distribution.
The predicted number of new cancer cases among men and women in France between 2015 and 2050 that could have been prevented by following the French government's alcohol consumption guidelines.
The simulation predicted that perfect adherence to the French government's alcohol consumption guidelines would prevent, on average, an estimated 15 952 cancer cases per year after the PIF reached its full effect, which would have represented 4.5% of new cancer cases in 2015. The number of averted cancer cases over the study period were highest for oral cavity, oropharynx and hypopharynx cancer (respectively, 118 462, 95% CI = 113 803-123 022 and 11 167, 95% CI = 10 149-12 229] for men and women; liver and intrahepatic bile ducts cancer (123 447, 95% CI = 112 581-133 404 and 2825, 95% CI = 2208,4095); colorectal cancer (89 859, 95% CI = 84 651-95 355 and 12 847, 95% CI = 11 545-14 245); and female breast cancer (61 649, 95% CI = 56 330-67 452).
This simulation study of the French general population predicted that perfect adherence to the French government's alcohol consumption guidelines (no more than 10 standard alcoholic drinks per week and two per day) would prevent almost 16 000 cancer cases per year.
预测在 36 年期间（2014-50 年）完全遵守法国饮酒指南，即每周最多饮用 10 标准酒精饮料，且每天不超过 2 标准酒精饮料的效果。
本模拟研究改编自谢菲尔德酒精政策模型。饮酒与酒精相关癌症风险之间的剂量-反应关系由特定癌症部位的风险函数定义，每个风险函数均建模为连续风险。这些估计用于计算与每个癌症部位的饮酒相关的潜在影响分数（PIF）。
36 年期间（2014-50 年）的法国一般成年人群体。
对于基线情况、反事实情况和完全遵守法国饮酒指南的情况，我们为每个性别和年龄组从校准的特定于组的伽马分布中生成了 1000 个随机分布的饮酒值。
根据法国政府的饮酒指南，2015 年至 2050 年期间法国男性和女性中可能预防的新癌症病例数量。
模拟预测，完全遵守法国政府的饮酒指南将平均每年预防约 15952 例癌症病例，在 PIF 完全生效后，这将占 2015 年新癌症病例的 4.5%。在研究期间，口腔、口咽和下咽癌的癌症病例减少数量最高（分别为 118462 例，95%CI=113803-123022 和 11167 例，95%CI=10149-12229]，男女均如此；肝癌和肝内胆管癌（123447 例，95%CI=112581-133404 和 2825 例，95%CI=2208，4095）；结直肠癌（89859 例，95%CI=84651-95355 和 12847 例，95%CI=11545-14245）；以及女性乳腺癌（61649 例，95%CI=56330-67452）。
这项针对法国普通人群的模拟研究预测，完全遵守法国政府的饮酒指南（每周不超过 10 标准酒精饮料，每天不超过 2 标准酒精饮料）将每年预防近 16000 例癌症病例。
