Modelling and Economics Unit, National Infection Service, Public Health England, London, UK.
MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College School of Public Health, London, UK.
Sci Rep. 2019 Feb 18;9(1):2185. doi: 10.1038/s41598-019-38825-y.
There is increasing evidence that aerosol transmission is a major contributor to the spread of influenza. Despite this, virtually all studies assessing the dynamics and control of influenza assume that it is transmitted solely through direct contact and large droplets, requiring close physical proximity. Here, we use wireless sensors to measure simultaneously both the location and close proximity contacts in the population of a US high school. This dataset, highly resolved in space and time, allows us to model both droplet and aerosol transmission either in isolation or in combination. In particular, it allows us to computationally quantify the potential effectiveness of overlooked mitigation strategies such as improved ventilation that are available in the case of aerosol transmission. Our model suggests that recommendation-abiding ventilation could be as effective in mitigating outbreaks as vaccinating approximately half of the population. In simulations using empirical transmission levels observed in households, we find that bringing ventilation to recommended levels had the same mitigating effect as a vaccination coverage of 50% to 60%. Ventilation is an easy-to-implement strategy that has the potential to support vaccination efforts for effective control of influenza spread.
越来越多的证据表明，气溶胶传播是流感传播的主要途径。尽管如此，几乎所有评估流感动态和控制的研究都假设它仅通过直接接触和大飞沫传播，需要近距离身体接触。在这里，我们使用无线传感器同时测量美国一所高中人群的位置和近距离接触。这个在空间和时间上高度解析的数据集允许我们分别或组合模拟飞沫和气溶胶传播。特别是，它使我们能够计算量化被忽视的缓解策略的潜在有效性，例如在气溶胶传播的情况下可用的改进通风。我们的模型表明，遵守建议的通风在减轻疫情方面的效果可能与为大约一半人口接种疫苗一样有效。在使用家庭中观察到的经验传播水平进行的模拟中，我们发现将通风提高到建议水平与 50%至 60%的疫苗接种覆盖率具有相同的缓解效果。通风是一种易于实施的策略，有可能支持疫苗接种工作，以有效控制流感传播。
