Kim Youjung, Newman Galen
Department of Landscape Architecture and Urban Planning, College Station, Texas A&M University, TX 77843, USA.
Sustainability. 2019 Feb 2;11(4). doi: 10.3390/su11041048. Epub 2019 Feb 18.
Rising sea levels and coastal population growth will increase flood risk of more people and assets if land use changes are not planned adequately. This research examines the efficacy of flood protection systems and land use planning by comparing Amsterdam in the Netherlands (renown for resilience planning methods), with the city of Houston, Texas in the US (seeking ways of increasing resilience due to extreme recent flooding). It assesses flood risk of future urban growth in lieu of sea level rise using the Land Transformation Model, a Geographic Information Systems (GIS)-based Artificial Neural Network (ANN) land use prediction tool. Findings show that Houston has currently developed much more urban area within high-risk flood-prone zones compared to Amsterdam. When comparing predicted urban areas under risk, flood-prone future urban areas in Amsterdam are also relatively smaller than Houston. Finally, the increased floodplain when accounting for sea level rise will impact existing and future urban areas in Houston, but do not increase risk significantly in Amsterdam. The results suggest that the protective infrastructure used in the Netherlands has protected its future urban growth from sea level rise more adequately than has Houston.
如果土地利用变化没有得到充分规划，海平面上升和沿海人口增长将增加更多人口和资产面临的洪水风险。本研究通过比较荷兰的阿姆斯特丹（以韧性规划方法闻名）和美国得克萨斯州的休斯敦市（因近期遭受极端洪水而寻求提高韧性的方法），考察了防洪系统和土地利用规划的有效性。研究使用土地转化模型（一种基于地理信息系统（GIS）的人工神经网络（ANN）土地利用预测工具）评估了未来城市增长在海平面上升情况下的洪水风险。研究结果表明，与阿姆斯特丹相比，休斯敦目前在高风险洪水易发区开发的城市区域要多得多。在比较处于风险中的预测城市区域时，阿姆斯特丹易发生洪水的未来城市区域也比休斯敦相对更小。最后，考虑海平面上升时洪泛区的增加将影响休斯敦现有的和未来的城市区域，但在阿姆斯特丹不会显著增加风险。结果表明，荷兰使用的防护基础设施比休斯敦更充分地保护了其未来城市增长免受海平面上升的影响。
