Ning Lei, Sheng Shuangqing, Meng Yue
School of Tourism and Town and Country Planning, Xichang University, Xichang, 615013, China.
College of Land Science and Technology, China Agricultural University, Beijing, 100083, China.
Sci Rep. 2024 Dec 30;14(1):31868. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-83200-1.
As global urbanization advances, the expansion of urban land has subjected cities to increasingly frequent and extensive external disturbances, often revealing limitations in disaster prevention and mitigation capacities, particularly in regions characterized by high urbanization, environmental degradation, and recurrent natural disasters. This study investigates the association between urban land expansion and urban resilience, developing a targeted analytical framework to assess their coupling and coordination. Leveraging remote sensing data on land use and socio-economic development indicators, we constructed a comprehensive evaluation index encompassing social, economic, ecological, and infrastructural dimensions. Examining three principal urban agglomerations in China's Yangtze River Basin, we analyzed the spatial-temporal dynamics and rates of change in urban land area and resilience levels from 2000 to 2020. A coupling coordination model was applied to assess the alignment between the rate of urban land expansion and resilience improvement, ultimately aiming to derive actionable policy recommendations. The results demonstrate that: (1) both the intensity and rate of urban land expansion across urban agglomerations in the Yangtze River Basin have declined, indicating a shift in urbanization focus from "land expansion" to "quality enhancement," with a slowdown in the conversion of agricultural to urban land. (2) Urban land expansion exhibits weak directionality, with land expansion occurring uniformly within the region. (3) On the whole, resilience levels in the Yangtze River Basin's urban agglomerations remain moderate or lower, although showing gradual improvement. (4) The coordination between urban land area and urban resilience across the basin is limited, with a declining alignment between urban land expansion and resilience enhancement rates, signaling an emerging imbalance. By assessing the coordination between urban land expansion and resilience, this study seeks to inform policy development on urban land management and resilience enhancement within the Yangtze River Basin's urban agglomerations.
随着全球城市化进程的推进，城市土地的扩张使城市面临日益频繁和广泛的外部干扰，常常暴露出防灾减灾能力的局限性，特别是在城市化程度高、环境退化和自然灾害频发的地区。本研究调查了城市土地扩张与城市韧性之间的关联，构建了一个有针对性的分析框架来评估它们的耦合与协调。利用土地利用遥感数据和社会经济发展指标，我们构建了一个涵盖社会、经济、生态和基础设施维度的综合评价指标。通过考察中国长江流域的三个主要城市群，我们分析了2000年至2020年城市土地面积和韧性水平的时空动态及变化率。应用耦合协调模型评估城市土地扩张速率与韧性提升之间的契合度，最终旨在得出可付诸行动的政策建议。结果表明：（1）长江流域城市群的城市土地扩张强度和速率均有所下降，表明城市化重点从“土地扩张”转向“质量提升”，农用地转为城市用地的速度放缓。（2）城市土地扩张的方向性较弱，区域内土地扩张较为均匀。（3）总体而言，长江流域城市群的韧性水平仍处于中等或较低水平，不过呈逐渐改善趋势。（4）流域内城市土地面积与城市韧性之间的协调性有限，城市土地扩张速率与韧性提升速率之间的契合度下降，显示出一种新出现的失衡。通过评估城市土地扩张与韧性之间的协调性，本研究旨在为长江流域城市群的城市土地管理和韧性提升政策制定提供参考。
