Zhu Rui, Tao Zhihan, Newman Galen, Counts Maria, Meyer Michelle, Offer Emily, Kim Youjung, Pinheiro Abel Táiti Konno, Ghezellou Yegane, Hokugo Akihiko, Kondo Tamiyo, Kuriyama Naoko, Maly Elizabeth
Texas A&M University.
Kobe University.
Landsc Res Rec. 2020 Mar;9:132-147.
Depopulation is a severe problem in many urban areas globally. Massive population migrations can occur due to relocation after natural disasters and significantly change the demographic composition of regions and cities. The 2011 Great Tsunami in Japan resulted in a combined total of deaths and missing persons of more than 24,500. Post-tsunami recovery efforts resulted in widespread population relocation of high-risk communities into lower-risk areas. Using the Fukushima Prefecture in Japan as the study area, a region characterized by several depopulating cities both pre and post-tsunami, this research examines how the population relocation efforts have either exacerbated or assisted in lessening the effects of urban shrinkage and decline after the earthquake and tsunami of 2011. The results show that 30 municipalities have seen population and economic growth since 2011, and 12 municipalities are underdoing trends toward decline within Fukushima. Negatively affected cities tend to have larger populations than positively affected cities. Most of the small towns and villages closer to the inundation area are fall into the category of negatively affected areas. Moreover, the population increases in many post-disaster cities are primarily due to significant increases in elderly populations with minimal young persons that will inevitably decline in the next decade. By determining the effects of their relocation efforts, the government can better develop targeted strategies that good for the prosperity and development of the Fukushima Prefecture.
人口减少是全球许多城市地区面临的严峻问题。由于自然灾害后的重新安置，可能会发生大规模人口迁移，这将显著改变地区和城市的人口构成。2011年日本发生的大海啸导致死亡和失踪人数总计超过24,500人。海啸后的恢复工作导致高风险社区大规模向低风险地区迁移。本研究以日本福岛县为研究区域，该地区在海啸前后都有多个城市出现人口减少的情况，研究探讨了2011年地震和海啸后人口迁移工作是如何加剧或有助于减轻城市萎缩和衰退的影响。结果显示，自2011年以来，福岛县内有30个市町人口和经济实现增长，12个市町呈衰退趋势。受负面影响的城市往往比受正面影响的城市人口更多。靠近淹没区的大多数小城镇和村庄都属于受负面影响的地区。此外，许多灾后城市的人口增长主要是由于老年人口大幅增加，而年轻人数量极少，未来十年老年人口数量必然会下降。通过确定人口迁移工作的影响，政府可以更好地制定有利于福岛县繁荣发展的针对性策略。
