Department of Cancer Epidemiology and Prevention Research, Cancer Control Alberta, Alberta Health Services, Holy Cross Centre, Room 513, Box ACB, 2210-2nd St. SW, Calgary, AB, T2S 3C3, Canada.
Department of Health Research Methods, Evidence, and Impact, McMaster University, McMaster University Health Sciences Centre, Room 2C16, 1280 Main Street West, Hamilton ON, L8S 4K1, Canada.
Cancer Epidemiol. 2019 Apr;59:199-207. doi: 10.1016/j.canep.2019.02.011. Epub 2019 Mar 1.
Cancer is the leading cause of death in Canada and the estimated annual spending associated with cancer is approximately $7.5 billion. Projecting the future burden of cancer in Canada is essential for health planning and evaluation. We aimed to estimate the future incidence of cancer in Canada to 2042.
Age-sex-region-specific cancer incidence data were obtained for the years 1983-2012 and cancer incidence was projected from 2013 to 2042 for the top five cancer sites. The modelling algorithm combined a mixture of cancer projection methods to select the best-fitted model. When the chosen model produced by the modelling algorithm resulted in estimates that were not consistent with expert opinion, an alternate model was selected that took into consideration historical changes in policy, screening and lifestyle behaviours. Incidence projections were made for Canada and its provinces.
Lung cancer incidence is estimated to rise to 14,866 cases in men and 19,162 in women in 2042. Colorectal cancer incidence is estimated to rise to 28,146 in men and 21,102 in women. Cases of bladder cancer are projected to rise to 10,708 and 3,364 in men and women, respectively. Breast cancer incidence is predicted to rise to 40,712 and prostate cancer incidence is projected to rise to 92,949.
These cancer incidence projections up to 2042 can be used for planning cancer control strategies and prevention programs. Given the ongoing changes in the prevalence of risk factors and in cancer prevention policies, these estimates should be interpreted with caution.
癌症是加拿大的主要死亡原因，与癌症相关的年估计支出约为 75 亿美元。预测加拿大未来癌症负担对于健康规划和评估至关重要。我们旨在估计加拿大未来到 2042 年的癌症发病率。
获得了 1983 年至 2012 年的年龄-性别-地区特异性癌症发病率数据，并对 2013 年至 2042 年的前五个癌症部位的癌症发病率进行了预测。建模算法结合了多种癌症预测方法，以选择最佳拟合模型。当建模算法选择的模型产生的估计值与专家意见不一致时，会选择考虑政策、筛查和生活方式变化历史的替代模型。对加拿大及其省份进行了发病率预测。
预计 2042 年男性肺癌发病率将上升至 14866 例，女性肺癌发病率将上升至 19162 例。预计男性结直肠癌发病率将上升至 28146 例，女性结直肠癌发病率将上升至 21102 例。膀胱癌病例预计将分别上升至 10708 例和 3364 例。乳腺癌发病率预计将上升至 40712 例，前列腺癌发病率预计将上升至 92949 例。
这些到 2042 年的癌症发病率预测可用于规划癌症控制策略和预防计划。鉴于风险因素和癌症预防政策的持续变化，应谨慎解读这些估计值。
