1 Division of Epidemiology, Department of Medicine, Vanderbilt University School of Medicine, Nashville, TN, USA.
2 Geriatric Research Education and Clinical Center, Tennessee Valley Healthcare System, Nashville, TN, USA.
Cancer Control. 2019 Jan-Dec;26(1):1073274819865274. doi: 10.1177/1073274819865274.
The population size and projected demographics of Vietnam's 2 largest cities, Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) and Hanoi, will change dramatically over the next decade. Demographic changes in an aging population coupled with income growth and changes in lifestyle will result in a very different distribution of common cancers in the future. The study aimed to project the number of cancer incidence in the 2 largest populated cities in Vietnam for the year 2025. Cancer incidence data from 2004 to 2013 collected from population-based cancer registries in these 2 cities were provided by Vietnam National Cancer Institute. Incidence cases in 2013 and the previous decades average annual percent changes of age-standardized cancer incidence rates combined with expected population growth were modeled to project cancer incidence for each cancer site by gender to 2025. A substantial double in cancer incidence from 2013 to 2025 resulted from a growing and aging population in HCMC and Hanoi. Lung, colorectum, breast, thyroid, and liver cancers, which represent 67% of the overall cancer burden, are projected to become the leading cancer diagnoses by 2025 regardless of genders. For men, the leading cancer sites in 2025 are predicted to be lung, colorectum, esophagus, liver, and pharynx cancer, and among women, they are expected to be breast, thyroid, colorectum, lung, and cervical cancer. We projected an epidemiological transition from infectious-associated cancers to a high burden of cancers that have mainly been attributed to lifestyle in both cities. We predicted that with 16.9% growth in the overall population and dramatic aging with these 2 urban centers, the burdens of cancer incidence will increase sharply in both cities over the next decades. Data on projections of cancer incidence in both cities provide useful insights for directing appropriate policies and cancer control programs in Vietnam.
越南最大的两个城市胡志明市（HCMC）和河内的人口规模和预计人口结构将在未来十年发生巨大变化。人口老龄化、收入增长和生活方式的改变带来的人口结构变化，将导致未来常见癌症的分布情况大不相同。本研究旨在预测越南这两个人口最多的城市 2025 年的癌症发病数量。越南国家癌症研究所提供了这两个城市基于人群的癌症登记处收集的 2004 年至 2013 年的癌症发病率数据。根据 2013 年及前几十年的发病率病例数和年龄标准化癌症发病率的平均年变化率，结合预期人口增长，对每个癌症部位按性别进行了预测，以估算到 2025 年的癌症发病率。由于胡志明市和河内人口增长和老龄化，2013 年至 2025 年期间癌症发病率将大幅增加。占总癌症负担 67%的肺癌、结直肠癌、乳腺癌、甲状腺癌和肝癌预计将成为 2025 年的主要癌症诊断，无论性别如何。对于男性来说，2025 年的主要癌症部位预计为肺癌、结直肠癌、食管癌、肝癌和咽部癌，而对于女性来说，预计为乳腺癌、甲状腺癌、结直肠癌、肺癌和宫颈癌。我们预测，这两个城市将从传染病相关癌症向主要由生活方式引起的高癌症负担的流行病学转变。我们预计，随着这两个城市总人口增长 16.9%和人口老龄化，未来几十年这两个城市的癌症发病率负担将急剧增加。这两个城市癌症发病率预测数据为越南制定适当的政策和癌症控制规划提供了有用的信息。
