2010-2018 年期间，北欧流感病毒活动高峰期与低温和低紫外线指数相关。

Department of Clinical and Molecular Medicine, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, 7028 Trondheim, Norway.

Institute of Technology, University of Tartu, 50090 Tartu, Estonia.

Viruses. 2019 Mar 1;11(3):207. doi: 10.3390/v11030207.

With the increasing pace of global warming, it is important to understand the role of meteorological factors in influenza virus (IV) epidemics. In this study, we investigated the impact of temperature, UV index, humidity, wind speed, atmospheric pressure, and precipitation on IV activity in Norway, Sweden, Finland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania during 2010⁻2018. Both correlation and machine learning analyses revealed that low temperature and UV indexes were the most predictive meteorological factors for IV epidemics in Northern Europe. Our in vitro experiments confirmed that low temperature and UV radiation preserved IV infectivity. Associations between these meteorological factors and IV activity could improve surveillance and promote development of accurate predictive models for future influenza outbreaks in the region.

随着全球变暖步伐的加快，了解气象因素在流感病毒（IV）流行中的作用至关重要。在这项研究中，我们调查了 2010-2018 年期间挪威、瑞典、芬兰、爱沙尼亚、拉脱维亚和立陶宛的温度、紫外线指数、湿度、风速、大气压和降水对 IV 活动的影响。相关性和机器学习分析都表明，低温和紫外线指数是北欧 IV 型流行的最具预测性的气象因素。我们的体外实验证实，低温和紫外线辐射可保持 IV 的感染力。这些气象因素与 IV 活动之间的关联可以改善监测，并促进该地区未来流感爆发的准确预测模型的开发。