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心理特征和压力可区分晚年高健康轨迹和低健康轨迹人群:一项机器学习分析。

Psychological characteristics and stress differentiate between high from low health trajectories in later life: a machine learning analysis.

机构信息

Psychopathology and Clinical Intervention, Institute of Psychology, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.

University Research Priority Program "Dynamics of Healthy Aging", University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.

出版信息

Aging Ment Health. 2020 Jul;24(7):1098-1107. doi: 10.1080/13607863.2019.1584787. Epub 2019 Mar 5.

Abstract

: This study set out to empirically identify joint health trajectories in individuals of advanced age. Predictors of subgroup allocation were investigated to identify the impact of psychological characteristics, stress, and socio-demographic variables on more favorable aging trajectories.: The sample consisted of  = 334 older adults (=68.31 years;  = 9.71). Clustered health trajectories were identified using a longitudinal variant of -means and were based on health and satisfaction with life. Random forests with conditional interference were computed to examine predictive capabilities. Key predictors included psychological resilience resources, exposure to childhood adversities, and chronic stress. Data was collected via a survey, at two different time points one year apart.: Two different clustered health trajectories were identified: A '' (low number of health-related symptoms, 65.6%) and a '' profile (high number of symptoms, 34.4%). Over the one-year study period, both symptom profiles remained stable. Random forest analyses showed chronic stress to be the most important predictor in the interaction with other risk and also buffering factors.: This study provides empirical evidence for two stable health trajectories in later life over one year. These results highlight the importance of chronic stress, but also psychological resilience resources in predicting aging trajectories.

摘要

: 本研究旨在从实证角度确定高龄个体的关节健康轨迹。研究了预测指标的分配,以确定心理特征、压力和社会人口变量对更有利的衰老轨迹的影响。: 样本包括  = 334 名老年人(=68.31 岁;=9.71)。使用均值的纵向变体和基于健康和对生活的满意度来识别聚类健康轨迹。计算了随机森林与条件干扰,以检验预测能力。主要预测指标包括心理弹性资源、童年逆境经历和慢性压力。数据通过一项调查收集,在一年的两个不同时间点进行。: 确定了两种不同的聚类健康轨迹:“健康”(健康相关症状数量较少,65.6%)和“非健康”(症状数量较多,34.4%)。在为期一年的研究期间,两种症状模式均保持稳定。随机森林分析表明,慢性压力是与其他风险和缓冲因素相互作用的最重要预测因素。: 本研究提供了一年中两个稳定的老年健康轨迹的实证证据。这些结果突出了慢性压力的重要性,但也突出了心理弹性资源在预测衰老轨迹中的作用。

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