1 Systematic Botany and Mycology, Department of Biology, University of Munich (LMU) , Menzinger Straße 67, Munich 80638 , Germany.
2 Institute of Integrative Biology, ETH Zurich (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology) , Universitätsstrasse 16, 8092 Zurich , Switzerland.
Proc Biol Sci. 2019 Mar 13;286(1898):20190316. doi: 10.1098/rspb.2019.0316.
Evaluating intrinsic and extrinsic traits that predispose species to local extinction is important for targeting conservation efforts. Among the species of special concern in Europe are bees, which, along with butterflies, are the best monitored insects. Bees are most species-rich in Mediterranean-type climates with short winters, warm springs, and dry summers. In Central Europe, climate warming per se is, therefore, expected to benefit most bee species, while pesticides and the loss of habitats and plant diversity should constitute threats. Here, we use the bee fauna of Germany, which has been monitored for Red Lists for over 40 years, to analyse the effects of habitat breadth, pollen specialization, body size, nesting sites, sociality, duration of flight activity, and time of emergence during the season. We tested each factor's predictive power against changes in commonness and Red List status, using phylogenetically informed hierarchical Bayesian (HB) models. Extinction vulnerability is strongly increased in bees flying in late summer, with a statistical model that included flight time, habitat preference, and duration of activity correctly predicting the vulnerability status of 85% of the species. Conversely, spring emergence and occurrence in urban areas each reduce vulnerability, pointing to intensive land use especially harming summer-active bees, with the combination of these factors currently shifting Germany's bee diversity towards warm-adapted, spring-flying, city-dwelling species.
评估易导致物种局部灭绝的内在和外在特征对于有针对性地开展保护工作非常重要。在欧洲受到特别关注的物种中，蜜蜂是其中之一，与蝴蝶一起，它们是监测昆虫的最佳物种。蜜蜂在冬季短暂、春季温暖、夏季干燥的地中海型气候中种类最为丰富。因此，在中欧，气候变暖本身预计将使大多数蜜蜂物种受益，而农药以及栖息地和植物多样性的丧失则应构成威胁。在这里，我们利用德国的蜜蜂动物群进行分析，德国已经对其进行了 40 多年的监测，以分析栖息地宽度、花粉专业化、体型、筑巢地点、社会性、飞行活动持续时间以及季节中出现时间等因素对常见性和红色名录地位变化的影响。我们使用基于系统发育的分层贝叶斯 (HB) 模型，针对每个因素对常见性和红色名录地位变化的预测能力进行了测试。在夏末飞行的蜜蜂中，灭绝脆弱性显著增加，包含飞行时间、栖息地偏好和活动持续时间的统计模型正确预测了 85%物种的脆弱性状况。相反，春季出现和在城市地区出现都降低了脆弱性，这表明集约土地利用尤其会伤害夏季活动的蜜蜂，这些因素的组合目前正在促使德国的蜜蜂多样性向适应温暖气候、春季飞行和城市居住的物种转变。
