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全球风险网络中威胁的演变。

Evolution of threats in the global risk network.

作者信息

Niu Xiang, Moussawi Alaa, Korniss Gyorgy, Szymanski Boleslaw K

机构信息

1Network Science and Technology Center, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI), 110 Eighth Street, Troy, 12180 NY USA.

2Department of Computer Science, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI), 110 Eighth Street, Troy, 12180 NY USA.

出版信息

Appl Netw Sci. 2018;3(1):24. doi: 10.1007/s41109-018-0077-0. Epub 2018 Aug 10.

DOI:10.1007/s41109-018-0077-0
PMID:30839829
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC6214318/
Abstract

With a steadily growing population and rapid advancements in technology, the global economy is increasing in size and complexity. This growth exacerbates global vulnerabilities and may lead to unforeseen consequences such as global pandemics fueled by air travel, cyberspace attacks, and cascading failures caused by the weakest link in a supply chain. Hence, a quantitative understanding of the mechanisms driving global network vulnerabilities is urgently needed. Developing methods for efficiently monitoring evolution of the global economy is essential to such understanding. Each year the World Economic Forum publishes an authoritative report on the state of the global economy and identifies risks that are likely to be active, impactful or contagious. Using a Cascading Alternating Renewal Process approach to model the dynamics of the global risk network, we are able to answer critical questions regarding the evolution of this network. To fully trace the evolution of the network we analyze the asymptotic state of risks (risk levels which would be reached in the long term if the risks were left unabated) given a snapshot in time; this elucidates the various challenges faced by the world community at each point in time. We also investigate the influence exerted by each risk on others. Results presented here are obtained through either quantitative analysis or computational simulations.

摘要

随着人口稳步增长和技术快速进步，全球经济的规模和复杂性日益增加。这种增长加剧了全球脆弱性，并可能导致一些不可预见的后果，如因航空旅行引发的全球大流行、网络空间攻击以及供应链中最薄弱环节导致的连锁故障。因此，迫切需要对驱动全球网络脆弱性的机制进行定量理解。开发有效监测全球经济演变的方法对于这种理解至关重要。世界经济论坛每年都会发布一份关于全球经济状况的权威报告，并识别可能活跃、有影响力或具有传染性的风险。通过使用级联交替更新过程方法对全球风险网络的动态进行建模，我们能够回答有关该网络演变的关键问题。为了全面追踪网络的演变，我们在给定一个时间点的快照的情况下，分析风险的渐近状态（如果风险不减弱，长期将达到的风险水平）；这阐明了国际社会在每个时间点面临的各种挑战。我们还研究了每种风险对其他风险的影响。这里呈现的结果是通过定量分析或计算模拟获得的。

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