Garira Winston
Modelling Health and Environmental Linkages Research Group (MHELRG), Department of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics, University of Venda, Private Bag X5050, Thohoyandou 0950, South Africa.
Infect Dis Model. 2018 Sep 20;3:176-191. doi: 10.1016/j.idm.2018.09.005. eCollection 2018.
The development of multiscale models of infectious disease systems is a scientific endeavour whose progress depends on advances on three main frontiers: (a) the conceptual framework frontier, (b) the mathematical technology or technical frontier, and (c) the scientific applications frontier. The objective of this primer is to introduce foundational concepts in multiscale modelling of infectious disease systems focused on these three main frontiers. On the conceptual framework frontier we propose a three-level hierarchical framework as a foundational idea which enables the discussion of the structure of multiscale models of infectious disease systems in a general way. On the scientific applications frontier we suggest ways in which the different structures of multiscale models can serve as infrastructure to provide new knowledge on the control, elimination and even eradication of infectious disease systems, while on the mathematical technology or technical frontier we present some challenges that modelers face in developing appropriate multiscale models of infectious disease systems. We anticipate that the foundational concepts presented in this primer will be central in articulating an integrated and more refined disease control theory based on multiscale modelling - the all-encompassing quantitative representation of an infectious disease system.
传染病系统多尺度模型的发展是一项科学事业，其进展取决于三个主要前沿领域的进步：（a）概念框架前沿，（b）数学技术或技术前沿，以及（c）科学应用前沿。本入门读物的目的是介绍传染病系统多尺度建模中的基础概念，重点关注这三个主要前沿领域。在概念框架前沿，我们提出一个三级层次框架作为基础理念，它能够以一种通用方式讨论传染病系统多尺度模型的结构。在科学应用前沿，我们提出了多尺度模型的不同结构可作为基础设施，为传染病系统的控制、消除甚至根除提供新知识的方法，而在数学技术或技术前沿，我们提出了建模者在开发适当的传染病系统多尺度模型时面临的一些挑战。我们预计，本入门读物中介绍的基础概念将成为阐明基于多尺度建模的综合且更精细的疾病控制理论的核心——传染病系统的全面定量表示。
