Huang Yamin, van Gelder P H A J M
Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, Delft University of Technology, Delft, The Netherlands.
Risk Anal. 2020 Jan;40(1):24-42. doi: 10.1111/risa.13293. Epub 2019 Mar 7.
We propose an innovative time-varying collision risk (TCR) measurement for ship collision prevention in this article. The proposed measurement considers the level of danger of the approaching ships and the capability of a ship to prevent collisions. We define the TCR as the probability of the overlap of ships' positions in the future, given the uncertainty of maneuvers. Two sets are identified: (1) the velocity obstacle set as the maneuvers of the own ship that lead to collisions with target ships, and (2) the reachable velocity set as the maneuvers that the own ship can reach regarding its maneuverability. We then measure the TCR as the time-dependent percentage of overlap between these two sets. Several scenarios are presented to illustrate how the proposed measurement identifies the time-varying risk levels, and how the approach can be used as an intuitively understandable tool for collision avoidance.
在本文中，我们提出了一种用于船舶防撞的创新型时变碰撞风险（TCR）测量方法。所提出的测量方法考虑了接近船舶的危险程度以及船舶的防撞能力。我们将TCR定义为在操纵存在不确定性的情况下，船舶未来位置重叠的概率。确定了两组：（1）速度障碍集，即本船导致与目标船舶碰撞的操纵；（2）可达速度集，即本船根据其操纵性能够达到的操纵。然后，我们将TCR测量为这两组之间随时间变化的重叠百分比。给出了几个场景来说明所提出的测量方法如何识别时变风险水平，以及该方法如何用作直观易懂的避碰工具。
