Predictive model of spread of Parkinson's pathology using network diffusion.

Growing evidence suggests that a "prion-like" mechanism underlies the pathogenesis of many neurodegenerative disorders, including Parkinson's disease (PD). We extend and tailor previously developed quantitative and predictive network diffusion model (NDM) to PD, by specifically modeling the trans-neuronal spread of alpha-synuclein outward from the substantia nigra (SN). The model demonstrated the spatial and temporal patterns of PD from neuropathological and neuroimaging studies and was statistically validated using MRI deformation of 232 Parkinson's patients. After repeated seeding simulations, the SN was found to be the most likely seed region, supporting its unique lynchpin role in Parkinson's pathology spread. Other alternative spread models were also evaluated for comparison, specifically, random spread and distance-based spread; the latter tests for Braak's original caudorostral transmission theory. We showed that the distance-based spread model is not as well supported as the connectivity-based model. Intriguingly, the temporal sequencing of affected regions predicted by the model was in close agreement with Braak stages III-VI, providing what we consider a "computational Braak" staging system. Finally, we investigated whether the regional expression patterns of implicated genes contribute to regional atrophy. Despite robust evidence for genetic factors in PD pathogenesis, NDM outperformed regional genetic expression predictors, suggesting that network processes are far stronger mediators of regional vulnerability than innate or cell-autonomous factors. This is the first finding yet of the ramification of prion-like pathology propagation in Parkinson's, as gleaned from in vivo human imaging data. The NDM is potentially a promising robust and clinically useful tool for diagnosis, prognosis and staging of PD.