Smale M, Singh R P, Sayre K, Pingali P, Rajaram S, Dubin H J
International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center, Lisboa 27, Apartado Postal 6-641, Mexico, D.F., 06600, Mexico.
Plant Dis. 1998 Sep;82(9):1055-1061. doi: 10.1094/PDIS.1998.82.9.1055.
Breeding for resistance to rust diseases in wheat is an example of productivity maintenance research. Productivity maintenance research is necessary to avoid contractions in the wheat supply curve that result from changes in the biological or physical environment. In this study, the benefits of incorporating nonspecific resistance to leaf rust caused by Puccinia recondita into modern bread wheats (Triticum aestivum) have been estimated using data on resistance genes identified in cultivars, trial data, and area sown to cultivar in the Yaqui Valley, Sonora State, Mexico. In the most pessimistic scenario, the gross benefits generated in the Yaqui Valley from 1970 to 1990 were 17 million U.S. dollars (in 1994 real terms). Even when costs were overstated and benefits were understated, the internal rate of return on capital invested was 13%, well within the range recommended for use in project evaluations by the World Bank. Substantial economic benefits likely are associated with deployment of nonspecific resistance in many wheat-producing areas of developing countries where farmers change cultivars slowly because of delays in cultivar release, incomplete seed markets, and economic factors related to adoption or where disease pressure is heavy and the costs of treating disease outbreaks is high.
培育小麦抗锈病品种是维持生产力研究的一个例子。维持生产力研究对于避免因生物或物理环境变化导致小麦供应曲线收缩是必要的。在本研究中，利用在品种中鉴定出的抗性基因数据、试验数据以及墨西哥索诺拉州亚基河谷各品种的播种面积数据，估算了将对隐匿柄锈菌引起的叶锈病的非特异性抗性纳入现代面包小麦（普通小麦）的益处。在最悲观的情况下，1970年至1990年亚基河谷产生的总收益为1700万美元（按1994年实际价值计算）。即使成本被高估而收益被低估，投入资本的内部收益率仍为13%，完全在世界银行推荐用于项目评估的范围内。在发展中国家的许多小麦产区，由于品种发布延迟、种子市场不完善以及与采用相关的经济因素，农民更换品种缓慢，或者病害压力大且防治病害爆发的成本高，部署非特异性抗性可能会带来巨大的经济效益。
