Faculty of Psychology, CES University, Medellin, Colombia.
Faculty of Economic Sciences, Department of Economy, University of Antioquia, Medellin, Colombia.
Biomed Res Int. 2018 Oct 1;2018:6120909. doi: 10.1155/2018/6120909. eCollection 2018.
To analyze the relationship between rural and urban homicide rates in Colombia between 1992 and 2015 and the fluctuations in these rates.
Individual records of homicides and population aggregates in men and women aged 15-64 years were used. The adjusted rates of annual homicides were calculated for urban/rural areas and standardized by age. Rate Ratios (RRs) adjusted by region were calculated. A joinpoint analysis was performed to identify inflection points and the Annual Percentage Change (APC).
Four joinpoints were identified in rural and urban rates: after peaking in 1992, homicide rates fell until 1997, and then increased until 2002. From this point on there was a continuous reduction until 2015, although this reduction slowed down from 2005 onward. During almost the whole period, the rates of rural homicides were higher than those of urban homicides, although they equalized at the end of the period.
Unlike in other countries, during the study period Colombian homicide rates, which coincided with the dynamics of the armed conflict, were higher in rural than in urban areas. In recent years, a predominance of urban homicides committed by younger men has been identified, which could pose a challenge to postconflict in Colombia.
分析 1992 年至 2015 年哥伦比亚城乡凶杀率的关系及其波动情况。
使用了男性和女性 15-64 岁的个人凶杀记录和人口数据。计算了城乡地区凶杀的调整年发生率，并按年龄进行了标准化。计算了按地区调整的率比（RR）。采用联合点分析确定拐点和年变化百分比（APC）。
在农村和城市的死亡率中发现了四个拐点：1992 年达到峰值后，凶杀率下降到 1997 年，然后上升到 2002 年。从那时起，直到 2015 年，连续下降，尽管从 2005 年开始下降速度有所放缓。在几乎整个期间，农村凶杀率都高于城市凶杀率，尽管在该期间结束时两者持平。
与其他国家不同，在研究期间，与武装冲突动态相一致的哥伦比亚凶杀率在农村地区高于城市地区。近年来，年轻人在城市地区实施的凶杀案居多，这可能对哥伦比亚冲突后的情况构成挑战。
