From the Department of Neurology (J.H., H.P., Y.D.K., H.S.N., J.H.H.), Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea.
Department of Laboratory Medicine (J.G.Y.), Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea.
Stroke. 2019 May;50(5):1263-1265. doi: 10.1161/STROKEAHA.118.024293.
Background and Purpose- The prediction of long-term outcomes in ischemic stroke patients may be useful in treatment decisions. Machine learning techniques are being increasingly adapted for use in the medical field because of their high accuracy. This study investigated the applicability of machine learning techniques to predict long-term outcomes in ischemic stroke patients. Methods- This was a retrospective study using a prospective cohort that enrolled patients with acute ischemic stroke. Favorable outcome was defined as modified Rankin Scale score 0, 1, or 2 at 3 months. We developed 3 machine learning models (deep neural network, random forest, and logistic regression) and compared their predictability. To evaluate the accuracy of the machine learning models, we also compared them to the Acute Stroke Registry and Analysis of Lausanne (ASTRAL) score. Results- A total of 2604 patients were included in this study, and 2043 (78%) of them had favorable outcomes. The area under the curve for the deep neural network model was significantly higher than that of the ASTRAL score (0.888 versus 0.839; P<0.001), while the areas under the curves of the random forest (0.857; P=0.136) and logistic regression (0.849; P=0.413) models were not significantly higher than that of the ASTRAL score. Using only the 6 variables that are used for the ASTRAL score, the performance of the machine learning models did not significantly differ from that of the ASTRAL score. Conclusions- Machine learning algorithms, particularly the deep neural network, can improve the prediction of long-term outcomes in ischemic stroke patients.
背景与目的- 预测缺血性脑卒中患者的长期预后可能有助于治疗决策。由于机器学习技术具有较高的准确性,因此它们在医学领域中的应用越来越广泛。本研究旨在探讨机器学习技术在预测缺血性脑卒中患者长期预后中的适用性。
方法- 这是一项回顾性研究,使用前瞻性队列纳入急性缺血性脑卒中患者。良好预后定义为 3 个月时改良 Rankin 量表评分为 0、1 或 2。我们开发了 3 种机器学习模型(深度神经网络、随机森林和逻辑回归),并比较了它们的预测能力。为了评估机器学习模型的准确性,我们还将其与急性脑卒中登记和分析洛桑评分(ASTRAL)进行了比较。
结果- 共纳入 2604 例患者,其中 2043 例(78%)患者预后良好。深度神经网络模型的曲线下面积明显高于 ASTRAL 评分(0.888 比 0.839;P<0.001),而随机森林(0.857;P=0.136)和逻辑回归(0.849;P=0.413)模型的曲线下面积则与 ASTRAL 评分无明显差异。仅使用 ASTRAL 评分所用的 6 个变量,机器学习模型的性能与 ASTRAL 评分无明显差异。
结论- 机器学习算法,特别是深度神经网络,可以提高缺血性脑卒中患者长期预后的预测能力。
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