乌干达的香烟需求对价格上涨有反应吗？使用乌干达国家面板调查和迪顿方法的价格弹性估计。
Does cigarette demand respond to price increases in Uganda? Price elasticity estimates using the Uganda National Panel Survey and Deaton's method.
机构信息
Graduate School of Business, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa.
School of Economics, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa.
出版信息
BMJ Open. 2019 Mar 20;9(3):e026150. doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2018-026150.
OBJECTIVE
To provide the first published estimates of the price elasticity of demand for cigarettes in Uganda and thereby contribute to growing the evidence base of the likely impact of excise taxes on cigarette consumption and tax revenues in Sub-Saharan Africa.
METHOD
We use a linear approximation of the Almost Ideal Demand System along with expenditure data from the Uganda National Panel Survey and exploit the fact that prices of cigarettes vary across geographical space in Uganda.
RESULTS
We find that cigarettes are price inelastic in Uganda with elasticity estimates ranging between -0.26 and -0.33. That is, we expect that cigarette demand will decline by between 2.6% and 3.3% every time cigarette prices rise by 10%. These elasticity estimates are in line with international evidence and are robust to outliers in the data.
CONCLUSION
Our estimates of the price elasticity of demand for cigarettes suggest that the authorities in Uganda can reduce cigarette consumption and simultaneously increase tax revenues by increasing the excise taxes on cigarettes.
目的
提供乌干达香烟需求价格弹性的首批公开发布估算值，从而为消费税对撒哈拉以南非洲地区香烟消费和税收的可能影响的证据基础提供更多支持。
方法
我们使用近似理想需求系统的线性近似值，并利用乌干达国家面板调查的支出数据，利用乌干达境内香烟价格在地理空间上存在差异的事实。
结果
我们发现乌干达的香烟价格缺乏弹性，弹性估计值在-0.26 至-0.33 之间。也就是说，我们预计每次香烟价格上涨 10%，香烟需求将下降 2.6%至 3.3%。这些弹性估计值与国际证据一致，并且对数据中的异常值具有稳健性。
结论
我们对香烟需求价格弹性的估算表明，乌干达当局可以通过提高香烟消费税来减少香烟消费，同时增加税收。
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