Manheim L M, Hughes S L
Health Serv Res. 1986 Jun;21(2 Pt 1):161-76.
Limited information exists concerning lifetime use of nursing home services by the aged. This article examines the longitudinal experience, over four years, of elderly individuals at high risk of institutionalization, and develops a simple model of nursing home use based on these observations. This model allows us to predict future lifetime use under alternative assumptions. The main observations drawn from this sample are that high-risk elderly tend to move from the community to nursing homes, but not back to the community except for short, transitional stays. Further, despite high overall mortality rates, the expected nursing home use by these high-risk elderly is very high, due to long average stays by a minority of the sample that enters a nursing home and remains there longer than six months.
关于老年人一生使用养老院服务的信息有限。本文考察了有机构养老高风险的老年人在四年间的纵向经历，并基于这些观察结果建立了一个简单的养老院使用模型。该模型使我们能够在不同假设下预测未来一生的使用情况。从这个样本得出的主要观察结果是，高风险老年人倾向于从社区转移到养老院，但除了短暂的过渡性停留外，不会再回到社区。此外，尽管总体死亡率很高，但这些高风险老年人的预期养老院使用率却非常高，这是因为进入养老院并在那里停留超过六个月的少数样本平均停留时间很长。
