Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Ulsan, Daehak-ro 93, Nam-gu, Ulsan, 680-749, Republic of Korea.
Institute of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, National University of Sciences and Technology H-12 Campus, Islamabad, 44000, Pakistan.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2019 May;26(13):13263-13274. doi: 10.1007/s11356-019-04506-6. Epub 2019 Mar 21.
This study explores the climate impacts of on-road tourist transportation with alternate mitigation strategies. To this end, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for 2016 and emissions under four "what-if" scenarios were estimated for a popular tourist site in Pakistan, i.e., Murree Hills, using the international vehicle emissions model. Alternate scenarios included occupancy optimization, bus transit system, and Euro II and Euro IV implementation. The emissions were further decomposed using the log mean Divisia index method to study the drivers of global warming potential (GWP) mitigation. As per the results, the total 20-year GWP for 2016 was equal to 51,262 tons CO equivalent, and maximum reduction was achieved under the bus transit system scenario having a 20-year GWP of 25,736 tons CO equivalent, i.e., 49.8% reduction. Relative to the base year, GWP reductions were also quite significant for Euro IV (46.8%), Euro II (45.8%), and occupancy optimization (32.3%) scenarios. For the base year, CO held a share of 87.3% in total emissions; however, its share in the 20-year GWP was 39.7% indicating its reduced impact on total GWP as compared to NO, CO, NOx, VOC, and CH. Based on the decomposition results for alternate scenarios, GWP mitigation was mainly driven by CO, CH, NOx, VOCs, and partially by CO, while NO negatively affected GWP mitigation. These results provide several policy-level instruments for developing countries to design a transition to an eco-friendly tourist transport management system. The policy implications from this study can be used to promote an eco-tourism industry.
本研究探讨了替代缓解策略下旅游交通的气候影响。为此，使用国际车辆排放模型估算了巴基斯坦热门旅游景点穆里山（Murree Hills）2016 年的温室气体（GHG）排放和四种“假设情景”下的排放情况。替代情景包括乘客优化、公共汽车运输系统以及实施欧 II 和欧 IV 标准。进一步使用对数平均迪维西亚指数法对排放进行分解，以研究全球变暖潜势（GWP）缓解的驱动因素。结果表明，2016 年的 20 年总 GWP 为 51262 吨二氧化碳当量，在公共汽车运输系统情景下最大减排量为 25736 吨二氧化碳当量，即 49.8%。与基准年相比，欧 IV（46.8%）、欧 II（45.8%）和乘客优化（32.3%）情景下的 GWP 减排也相当显著。对于基准年，CO 在总排放量中占 87.3%；然而，其在 20 年 GWP 中的份额为 39.7%，这表明与 NO、CO、NOx、VOC 和 CH 相比，其对总 GWP 的影响有所降低。基于替代情景的分解结果，GWP 缓解主要受 CO、CH、NOx、VOC 驱动，部分受 CO 驱动，而 NO 对 GWP 缓解产生负面影响。这些结果为发展中国家提供了一些政策层面的工具，以设计向环保型旅游交通管理系统的过渡。本研究的政策意义可用于促进生态旅游产业的发展。
