School of Mathematics and Statistics, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China.
National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2019 Mar 31;16(7):1159. doi: 10.3390/ijerph16071159.
In this paper, a vector autoregression (VAR) model has been constructed in order to analyze a two-way mechanism between PM pollution and industry development in Beijing via the combination of an impulse response function and variance decomposition. According to the results, long-term equilibrium interconnection was found between PM pollution and the development of primary, secondary, and tertiary industries. One-way Granger causalities were found in the three types of industries shown to contribute to PM pollution, though the three industries showed different scales of influences on the PM pollution that varied for about 1⁻2 years. The development of the primary and secondary industries increased the emission of PM, but the tertiary industry had an inhibitory effect. In addition, PM pollution had a certain inhibitory effect on the development of the primary and secondary industries, but the inhibition of the tertiary industry was not significant. Therefore, the development of the tertiary industry can contribute the most to the reduction of PM pollution. Based on these findings, policy-making recommendations can be proposed regarding upcoming pollution prevention strategies.
本文构建了向量自回归（VAR）模型，通过脉冲响应函数和方差分解的结合，分析了北京 PM 污染与产业发展之间的双向机制。结果表明，PM 污染与第一、二、三产业的发展之间存在长期均衡的相互关系。在导致 PM 污染的这三种产业中，存在单向格兰杰因果关系，但这三种产业对 PM 污染的影响程度不同，约为 1⁻2 年。第一、二产业的发展增加了 PM 的排放，但第三产业具有抑制作用。此外，PM 污染对第一、二产业的发展有一定的抑制作用，但对第三产业的抑制作用不明显。因此，第三产业的发展对减少 PM 污染的贡献最大。基于这些发现，可以针对即将出台的污染防治策略提出决策建议。
