Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California, San Francisco, USA; Goldman School of Public Policy, University of California, Berkeley, USA.
Division of Prevention Science, Department of Medicine, University of California, San Francisco, USA.
Soc Sci Med. 2019 Jun;230:9-19. doi: 10.1016/j.socscimed.2019.03.010. Epub 2019 Mar 11.
The jurisdiction where an offense is prosecuted significantly affects the severity of punishment for drug possession, creating geographic disparities in exposure to a social determinant of health. In California, felony conviction rates after drug possession arrests have historically varied enormously between counties. California Proposition 47 (Prop-47), passed in 2014, reduced drug possession offenses previously classified as felonies or wobblers (offenses for which prosecutors have discretion to file felony or misdemeanor charges) to misdemeanors. This study examines whether geographic variation in felony convictions after drug possession arrests was reduced, and whether effects were offset by changes in felony convictions for other offenses not addressed by Prop-47.
Arrests made after the implementation of Prop-47 were propensity score matched to similar arrests prior to Prop-47 to account for compositional changes in arrests. This approach compares the outcomes of individuals likely to be arrested with or without the reclassification of drug offenses. We used mixed models to estimate the change in county variance in the probability of felony conviction.
The probability of a felony conviction among those arrested for Prop-47 drug offenses declined by 14 percentage points (95% CI: -0.16, -0.12), from 0.20 (95% CI: 0.18, 0.23) to 0.06 (95% CI: 0.06, 0.07). Counties with higher felony conviction probabilities pre-Prop-47 declined most, reducing cross-county variance. For those arrested for drug offenses unaffected by Prop-47, the probability of felony conviction declined by 7 percentage points (95% CI: -0.08, -0.05), from 0.34 (95% CI: 0.31, 0.37) to 0.27 (0.25, 0.29). Declines in both groups were driven by fewer felony convictions for Prop-47 drug offenses, with no increases in felony convictions for concurrent offenses.
Reducing offense classifications for drug possession reduced previously large differences in the probability of felony convictions for people arrested for drug offenses in different counties.
犯罪起诉地对持有毒品的处罚严重程度有重大影响，从而导致了健康社会决定因素方面的地域差异。在加利福尼亚州，因持有毒品被捕后的重罪定罪率在过去各县之间存在巨大差异。2014 年通过的加利福尼亚州第 47 号提案（Prop-47）将先前被归类为重罪或摇摆罪（检察官有权决定提出重罪或轻罪指控的犯罪）的毒品持有罪减为轻罪。本研究考察了在持有毒品被捕后，重罪定罪的地域差异是否减少，以及是否因 Prop-47 未涉及的其他犯罪的重罪定罪变化而抵消了这种影响。
实施 Prop-47 后进行的逮捕与实施 Prop-47 前的逮捕进行倾向评分匹配，以说明逮捕构成的变化。这种方法比较了没有或有毒品犯罪重新分类的情况下，个人被捕的可能性。我们使用混合模型来估计县间重罪定罪概率方差的变化。
因 Prop-47 毒品犯罪被捕者被判重罪的概率下降了 14 个百分点（95%置信区间：-0.16，-0.12），从 0.20（95%置信区间：0.18，0.23）降至 0.06（95%置信区间：0.06，0.07）。Prop-47 前重罪定罪概率较高的县下降幅度最大，降低了县际方差。对于因不受 Prop-47 影响的毒品犯罪被捕者，被判重罪的概率下降了 7 个百分点（95%置信区间：-0.08，-0.05），从 0.34（95%置信区间：0.31，0.37）降至 0.27（0.25，0.29）。这两个群体的下降都是由于 Prop-47 毒品犯罪的重罪定罪减少，而同期犯罪的重罪定罪没有增加。
降低持有毒品的犯罪分类减少了不同县因持有毒品被捕者被判重罪的概率的先前巨大差异。
