Crodelle Jennifer, Vallejo Celeste, Schmidtchen Markus, Topaz Chad M, D'Orsogna Maria R
Department of Mathematics, Middlebury College, Middlebury, VT, United States of America.
Mathematical Biosciences Institute, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, United States of America.
PLoS One. 2021 May 19;16(5):e0251199. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0251199. eCollection 2021.
We examine patterns of reported crime in Santa Monica, California before and after the passage of Proposition 47, a 2014 initiative that reclassified some non-violent felonies as misdemeanors. We also investigate impacts of the opening of four new light rail stations in 2016 and of increased community-based policing starting in late 2018. Our statistical analyses of reclassified crimes-larceny, fraud, possession of narcotics, forgery, receiving/possessing stolen property-and non-reclassified ones are based on publicly available reported crime data from 2006 to 2019. These analyses examine reported crime at various levels: city-wide, within eight neighborhoods, and within a 450-meter radius of the new transit stations. Monthly reported reclassified crimes increased city-wide by approximately 15% after enactment of Proposition 47, with a significant drop observed in late 2018. Downtown exhibited the largest overall surge. Reported non-reclassified crimes fell overall by approximately 9%. Areas surrounding two new train stations, including Downtown, saw significant increases in reported crime after train service began. While reported reclassified crimes increased after passage of Proposition 47, non-reclassified crimes, for the most part, decreased or stayed constant, suggesting that Proposition 47 may have impacted reported crime in Santa Monica. Reported crimes decreased in late 2018 concurrent with the adoption of new community-based policing measures. Follow-up studies needed to confirm long-term trends may be challenging due to the COVID-19 pandemic that drastically changed societal conditions. While our research detects changes in reported crime, it does not provide causative explanations. Our work, along with other considerations relevant to public utility, respect for human rights, and existence of socioeconomic disparities, may be useful to law enforcement and policymakers to assess the overall effect of Proposition 47.
我们研究了加利福尼亚州圣莫尼卡市在第47号提案通过前后的犯罪报案模式。该提案是2014年的一项倡议，将一些非暴力重罪重新归类为轻罪。我们还调查了2016年四个新轻轨站启用以及2018年末开始加强社区治安的影响。我们对重新归类的犯罪（盗窃、欺诈、持有毒品、伪造、收受/持有被盗财产）和未重新归类的犯罪进行的统计分析，是基于2006年至2019年公开的犯罪报案数据。这些分析在不同层面考察犯罪报案情况：全市范围、八个社区内以及新交通站点半径450米范围内。第47号提案颁布后，全市每月重新归类的犯罪报案数量增加了约15%，2018年末出现显著下降。市中心的总体增幅最大。未重新归类的犯罪报案总数下降了约9%。包括市中心在内的两个新火车站周边地区，在火车服务开始后，犯罪报案显著增加。虽然第47号提案通过后重新归类的犯罪报案有所增加，但未重新归类的犯罪在很大程度上减少或保持不变，这表明第47号提案可能对圣莫尼卡市的犯罪报案产生了影响。2018年末，随着新的社区治安措施的采用，犯罪报案数量下降。由于新冠疫情极大地改变了社会状况，后续用于确认长期趋势的研究可能具有挑战性。虽然我们的研究发现了犯罪报案的变化，但并未提供因果解释。我们的工作，连同与公共事业、尊重人权以及社会经济差距存在相关的其他考虑因素，可能有助于执法部门和政策制定者评估第47号提案的总体效果。
