Berlin Graduate School for Global and Transregional Studies, Free University Berlin, Berlin, Germany.
Department of Social and Political Sciences, Bocconi University, Milan, Italy.
Soc Sci Res. 2019 May;80:83-113. doi: 10.1016/j.ssresearch.2019.01.001. Epub 2019 Jan 14.
This article highlights an important yet insufficiently understood international-level determinant of inequality in the developing world: structural adjustment programs by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Studying a panel of 135 countries for the period 1980 to 2014, we examine income inequality using multivariate regression analysis corrected for non-random selection into both IMF programs and associated policy reforms (known as 'conditionality'). We find that, overall, policy reforms mandated by the IMF increase income inequality in borrowing countries. We also test specific pathways linking IMF programs to inequality by disaggregating conditionality by issue area. Our analyses indicate adverse distributional consequences for four policy areas: fiscal policy reforms that restrain government expenditure, external sector reforms stipulating trade and capital account liberalization, financial sector reforms entailing inflation-control measures, and reforms that restrict external debt. These effects occur one year after the incidence of an IMF program, and persist in the medium term. Taken together, our findings suggest that the IMF's recent attention to inequality neglects the multiple ways through which the organization's own policy advice has contributed to inequality in the developing world.
国际货币基金组织（IMF）的结构调整计划。我们研究了 1980 年至 2014 年期间的 135 个国家的面板数据，使用多元回归分析校正了 IMF 计划和相关政策改革（称为“条件性”）的非随机选择。我们发现，总体而言，IMF 强制实施的政策改革增加了借款国的收入不平等。我们还通过按问题领域细分条件性，测试了将 IMF 计划与不平等联系起来的具体途径。我们的分析表明，IMF 计划对四个政策领域产生了不利的分配后果：限制政府支出的财政政策改革、规定贸易和资本账户自由化的外部部门改革、涉及控制通货膨胀措施的金融部门改革，以及限制外债的改革。这些影响发生在 IMF 计划实施一年后，并在中期持续存在。总的来说，我们的研究结果表明，IMF 最近对不平等的关注忽视了该组织自身政策建议导致发展中国家不平等的多种途径。
