Schellekens Jona, Gliksberg David
1Department of Sociology and Anthropology, Hebrew University, Mount Scopus, 91905 Jerusalem, Israel.
2Faculty of Law, Hebrew University, Mount Scopus, 91905 Jerusalem, Israel.
Eur J Popul. 2018 Jan 3;34(1):119-142. doi: 10.1007/s10680-017-9457-x. eCollection 2018 Feb.
Over the past four decades, the more developed countries have experienced a marked decline in the marriage rates of both men and women. The reasons for the decline remain a debated issue. Three explanations predict that the decline in marriage is a period effect, while two predict that it is a birth cohort effect. To determine whether the decline is a period or a cohort effect, this study performed an age-period-cohort analysis. Using data from Israel, our results show that both cohort replacement and period factors were important. Until 1990-1994 the decline in marriage was a period effect, whereas after 1990-1994 the decline was a cohort effect. We conclude with a discussion of the implications of our results for the three major explanations of the decline in marriage.
在过去的四十年里，较为发达国家的男性和女性结婚率都显著下降。下降的原因仍是一个有争议的问题。三种解释预测结婚率下降是一种时期效应，而另外两种解释预测这是一种出生队列效应。为了确定下降是时期效应还是队列效应，本研究进行了年龄-时期-队列分析。利用以色列的数据，我们的结果表明队列更替和时期因素都很重要。直到1990 - 1994年，结婚率下降是时期效应，而1990 - 1994年之后，下降则是队列效应。我们最后讨论了我们的结果对结婚率下降的三种主要解释的影响。
