Economics/Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences, Estrella Mountain College, Avondale, Arizona, United States of America.
Department of Economics, Faculty of Management and Technology, German University in Cairo (GUC), New Cairo, Egypt.
PLoS One. 2023 May 8;18(5):e0283107. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0283107. eCollection 2023.
Do the famous laws of the motion of technological progress like the Moore's Law, Wright's Law, Goddard's Law, and their derivatives explain the technological knowledge progress of developing and emerging economies? The aim of this paper is to investigate that question. For that purpose, we rationalize an existing framework (Nagy et al. 2013) and employ it on a panel data set of 66 developing and emerging market economies over the 1995-2017 period. Empirical evidence is mixed. Some of the results confirm a positive relationship between technological knowledge progress and the progress of time. Other instances indicate that the slow rate of learning delays the doubling time by 18 years. Yet other results predict that this group of countries will double its rate of progress in 4-5 years. The explanatory power varies across the laws, with most laws suggesting acceptance of the hypotheses that the included variables affect the technological knowledge progress while others recommending that we "do not accept" the hypothesis that in-situ scale and hence cumulative GDP per capita explain the technological knowledge progress of these countries. Practical policy implications, which this group of countries can use to assess and address constraints to the technological knowledge progress, are also discussed.
著名的技术进步定律，如摩尔定律、莱特定律、戈达德定律及其衍生定律，能否解释发展中经济体和新兴经济体的技术知识进步？本文旨在探讨这一问题。为此，我们合理化了一个现有的框架（Nagy 等人，2013 年），并将其应用于 1995-2017 年期间 66 个发展中经济体和新兴市场经济体的面板数据集上。实证证据喜忧参半。一些结果证实了技术知识进步与时间进步之间存在正相关关系。其他情况表明，学习的缓慢速度将翻倍时间推迟了 18 年。还有其他结果预测，这组国家将在 4-5 年内将其进步速度翻一番。这些定律的解释力各不相同，大多数定律表明，所包含的变量会影响技术知识进步，而其他定律则表明，我们“不接受”原地规模，即人均国内生产总值累积解释这些国家技术知识进步的假设。本文还讨论了这组国家可以用来评估和解决技术知识进步障碍的实际政策含义。
