de Vries Charlotte, Caswell Hal
Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
Theor Ecol. 2018;11(2):129-140. doi: 10.1007/s12080-017-0353-0. Epub 2017 Dec 8.
History matters when individual prior conditions contain important information about the fate of individuals. We present a general framework for demographic models which incorporates the effects of history on population dynamics. The framework incorporates prior condition into the -state variable and includes an algorithm for constructing the population projection matrix from information on current state dynamics as a function of prior condition. Three biologically motivated classes of prior condition are included: prior stages, linear functions of current and prior stages, and equivalence classes of prior stages. Taking advantage of the matrix formulation of the model, we show how to calculate sensitivity and elasticity of any demographic outcome. Prior condition effects are a source of inter-individual variation in vital rates, i.e., individual heterogeneity. As an example, we construct and analyze a second-order model of , a long-lived herb. We present population growth rate, the stable population distribution, the reproductive value vector, and the elasticity of to changes in the second-order transition rates. We quantify the contribution of prior conditions to the total heterogeneity in the stable population of using the entropy of the stable distribution.
当个体先前状况包含有关个体命运的重要信息时，历史就很重要了。我们提出了一个人口模型的通用框架，该框架纳入了历史对种群动态的影响。该框架将先前状况纳入状态变量，并包括一种根据当前状态动态信息（作为先前状况的函数）构建种群投影矩阵的算法。包括三类具有生物学动机的先前状况：先前阶段、当前和先前阶段的线性函数以及先前阶段的等价类。利用模型的矩阵形式，我们展示了如何计算任何人口统计学结果的敏感性和弹性。先前状况效应是生命率个体间变异的一个来源，即个体异质性。例如，我们构建并分析了一种长寿草本植物的二阶模型。我们给出了种群增长率、稳定种群分布、繁殖价值向量以及对二阶转移率变化的弹性。我们使用稳定分布的熵来量化先前状况对该植物稳定种群中总异质性的贡献。
