Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA.
Joint Institute for Regional Earth System Science and Engineering, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA.
Science. 2019 Jun 7;364(6444). doi: 10.1126/science.aav7908. Epub 2019 Apr 25.
Geodetic investigations of crustal motions in the Amundsen Sea sector of West Antarctica and models of ice-sheet evolution in the past 10,000 years have recently highlighted the stabilizing role of solid-Earth uplift on polar ice sheets. One critical aspect, however, that has not been assessed is the impact of short-wavelength uplift generated by the solid-Earth response to unloading over short time scales close to ice-sheet grounding lines (areas where the ice becomes afloat). Here, we present a new global simulation of Antarctic evolution at high spatiotemporal resolution that captures all solid Earth processes that affect ice sheets and show a projected negative feedback in grounding line migration of 38% for Thwaites Glacier 350 years in the future, or 26.8% reduction in corresponding sea-level contribution.
近年来，对南极洲西部阿蒙森海扇区地壳运动的大地测量研究以及过去 1 万年冰盖演化的模型研究，突出了地球固体抬升对极地冰盖的稳定作用。然而，有一个关键方面尚未评估，即在冰盖下垫面附近（冰开始漂浮的区域），地球固体对冰架卸载的短时间尺度响应产生的短波长抬升的影响。在这里，我们提出了一个新的南极演化的全球模拟，具有高时空分辨率，捕捉了所有影响冰盖的地球固体过程，并显示出 Thwaites 冰川在未来 350 年内的下垫面迁移的负反馈预测为 38%，或相应海平面贡献减少 26.8%。
