Joughin Ian, Shapero Daniel, Dutrieux Pierre, Smith Ben
Polar Science Center, Applied Physics Lab, University of Washington, 1013 NE 40th Street, Seattle, WA 98105, USA.
British Antarctic Survey, High Cross, Madingley Road, Cambridge CB3 0ET, UK.
Sci Adv. 2021 Oct 22;7(43):eabi5738. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.abi5738.
The spatial distribution of ocean-induced melting beneath buttressing ice shelves is often cited as an important factor controlling Antarctica’s sea-level contribution. Using numerical simulations, we investigate the relative sensitivity of grounded-ice loss to the spatial distribution and overall volume of ice-shelf melt over two centuries. Contrary to earlier work, we find only minor sensitivity to melt distribution (<6%), with a linear dependence of ice loss on the total melt. Thus, less complex models that need not reproduce the detailed melt distribution may simplify the projection of future sea level. The linear sensitivity suggests a contribution of up to 5.1 cm from Pine Island Glacier over the next two centuries given anticipated levels of ocean warming, provided its ice shelf does not collapse because of other causes.
支撑冰架下方海洋引起的融化的空间分布，常被视为控制南极洲海平面贡献的一个重要因素。我们利用数值模拟，研究了两个世纪以来， grounded-ice损失对冰架融化的空间分布和总体积的相对敏感性。与早期研究不同，我们发现对融化分布的敏感性很小（<6%），冰损失与总融化量呈线性相关。因此，无需再现详细融化分布的较简单模型，可能会简化未来海平面的预测。这种线性敏感性表明，在预计的海洋变暖水平下，未来两个世纪派恩岛冰川可能导致海平面上升高达5.1厘米，前提是其冰架不会因其他原因崩塌。
