Department of Infrastructure Engineering, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Hasanuddin University, Makassar, Indonesia.
Science. 2019 May 10;364(6440):548-552. doi: 10.1126/science.aav9527. Epub 2019 Apr 25.
In this study, global satellite data were analyzed to determine trends in oceanic wind speed and significant wave height over the 33-year period from 1985 to 2018. The analysis uses an extensive database obtained from 31 satellite missions comprising three types of instruments-altimeters, radiometers, and scatterometers. The analysis shows small increases in mean wind speed and significant wave height over this period, with larger increases in extreme conditions (90th percentiles). The largest increases occur in the Southern Ocean. Confidence in the results is strengthened because the wind speed trends are confirmed by all three satellite systems. An extensive set of sensitivity analyses confirms that both the mean and 90th percentile trends are robust, with only small impacts caused by satellite calibration and sampling patterns.
本研究利用 1985 年至 2018 年 33 年间来自 31 项卫星任务的三种仪器（测高仪、辐射计和散射计）的广泛数据库，分析了全球卫星数据，以确定海洋风速和有义波高的变化趋势。分析表明，在此期间平均风速和有义波高略有增加，极端条件（90 百分位）增加更大。最大的增长发生在南大洋。由于风速趋势得到了所有三个卫星系统的证实，因此结果的可信度得到了增强。广泛的敏感性分析证实，平均和 90 百分位趋势都是稳健的，卫星校准和采样模式的影响很小。
