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CMIP6 衍生海洋表面波气候的 8 模式集合。

An 8-model ensemble of CMIP6-derived ocean surface wave climate.

机构信息

Department of Infrastructure Engineering, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, 3010, Australia.

Climate Science Centre, CSIRO Environment, Aspendale, VIC, 3195, Australia.

出版信息

Sci Data. 2024 Jan 20;11(1):100. doi: 10.1038/s41597-024-02932-x.

Abstract

We present a global wind wave climate model ensemble composed of eight spectral wave model simulations forced by 3-hourly surface wind speed and daily sea ice concentration from eight different CMIP6 GCMs. The spectral wave model uses ST6 physics parametrizations and a global three-grid structure for efficient Arctic and Antarctic wave modeling. The ensemble performance is evaluated against a reference global multi-mission satellite altimeter database and the recent ECMWF IFS Cy46r1 ERA5 wave hindcast, ERA5H. For each ensemble member three 30-year slices, one historical, and two future emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5) are available, and cover two distinct periods: 1985-2014 and 2071-2100. Two models extend to 140 years (1961-2100) of continuous wind wave climate simulations. The present ensemble outperforms a previous CMIP5-forced wind wave climate ensemble, showing improved performance across all ocean regions. This dataset is a valuable resource for future wind wave climate research and can find practical applications in offshore and coastal engineering projects, providing crucial insights into the uncertainties connected to wind wave climate future projections.

摘要

我们呈现了一个由八个谱波模型模拟组成的全球风浪气候模型集合,这些模型由八个不同的 CMIP6 GCM 提供的每三小时一次的海面风速和每日海冰浓度驱动。谱波模型使用 ST6 物理参数化和一个全球三网格结构,以实现高效的北极和南极波建模。该集合的性能通过与参考全球多任务卫星测高数据库和最近的 ECMWF IFS Cy46r1 ERA5 波后报 ERA5H 进行评估。对于每个集合成员,有三个 30 年的切片,一个历史切片和两个未来排放情景(SSP1-2.6 和 SSP5-8.5)可用,涵盖了两个不同的时期:1985-2014 年和 2071-2100 年。有两个模型可以扩展到 140 年(1961-2100 年)的连续风浪气候模拟。目前的集合表现优于之前的 CMIP5 驱动的风浪气候集合,在所有海洋区域都表现出了改进的性能。该数据集是未来风浪气候研究的宝贵资源,并且可以在海上和沿海工程项目中找到实际应用,为风浪气候未来预测的不确定性提供了重要的见解。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/255e/10799940/15b26a5aef04/41597_2024_2932_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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