de Barros Ana Carolina W G, Santos Kaline G, Massad Eduardo, Coelho Flávio Codeço
Fundação Getulio Vargas, Escola de Matemática Aplicada, Rio de Janeiro 22250-9000, Brazil.
Microorganisms. 2019 Apr 25;7(4):112. doi: 10.3390/microorganisms7040112.
In 2015-2016, South America went through the largest Zika epidemic in recorded history. One important aspect of this epidemic was the importance of sexual transmission in combination with the usual vectorial transmission, with asymmetrical transmissibilities between sexual partners depending on the type of sexual contact; this asymmetry manifested itself in data as an increased risk to women. We propose a mathematical model for the transmission of the Zika virus including sexual transmission via all forms of sexual contact, as well as vector transmission, assuming a constant availability of mosquitoes. From this model, we derive an expression for R 0 , which is used to study and analyze the relative contributions of the male to female sexual transmission route vis-à-vis vectorial transmission. We also perform Bayesian inference of the model's parameters using data from the 2016 Zika epidemic in Rio de Janeiro.
2015年至2016年，南美洲经历了有记录以来最大规模的寨卡疫情。此次疫情的一个重要方面是性传播与通常的病媒传播相结合的重要性，性伴侣之间的传播率不对称，这取决于性接触的类型；这种不对称在数据中表现为女性面临的风险增加。我们提出了一个寨卡病毒传播的数学模型，该模型包括通过各种形式性接触的性传播以及病媒传播，假设蚊子数量恒定。从这个模型中，我们推导出了R0的表达式，用于研究和分析男性对女性性传播途径相对于病媒传播的相对贡献。我们还使用2016年里约热内卢寨卡疫情的数据对模型参数进行贝叶斯推断。
