Martinich Jeremy, Crimmins Allison
United States Environmental Protection Agency, Washington DC, USA.
Nat Clim Chang. 2019 Apr 8;9:397-404. doi: 10.1038/s41558-019-0444-6.
There is a growing capability to project the impacts and economic effects of climate change across multiple sectors. This information is needed to inform decisions regarding the diversity and magnitude of future climate impacts and explore how mitigation and adaptation actions might affect these risks. Here, we summarize results from sectoral impact models applied within a consistent modelling framework to project how climate change will affect 22 impact sectors of the United States, including effects on human health, infrastructure and agriculture. The results show complex patterns of projected changes across the country, with damages in some sectors (for example, labour, extreme temperature mortality and coastal property) estimated to range in the hundreds of billions of US dollars annually by the end of the century under high emissions. Inclusion of a large number of sectors shows that there are no regions that escape some mix of adverse impacts. Lower emissions, and adaptation in relevant sectors, would result in substantial economic benefits.
预测气候变化对多个部门的影响和经济效应的能力正在不断增强。需要这些信息来为有关未来气候影响的多样性和规模的决策提供依据,并探索减缓与适应行动可能如何影响这些风险。在此,我们总结了在一个统一建模框架内应用的部门影响模型的结果,以预测气候变化将如何影响美国的22个影响部门,包括对人类健康、基础设施和农业的影响。结果显示了全国预计变化的复杂模式,到本世纪末,在高排放情景下,一些部门(如劳动力、极端温度导致的死亡率和沿海财产)的损失估计每年高达数千亿美元。纳入大量部门表明,没有哪个地区能避免受到某种不利影响的组合。较低的排放以及相关部门的适应措施将带来巨大的经济效益。