Faculty of Computing Science and Mathematics, University of Stirling, Stirling, UK.
CIBIO/InBIO, Research Center in Biodiversity and Genetic Resources, University of Porto, Vairão, Portugal.
Glob Chang Biol. 2019 Sep;25(9):3163-3178. doi: 10.1111/gcb.14671. Epub 2019 May 27.
Primates are facing an impending extinction crisis, driven by extensive habitat loss, land use change and hunting. Climate change is an additional threat, which alone or in combination with other drivers, may severely impact those taxa unable to track suitable environmental conditions. Here, we investigate the extent of climate and land use/cover (LUC) change-related risks for primates. We employed an analytical approach to objectively select a subset of climate scenarios, for which we then calculated changes in climatic and LUC conditions for 2050 across primate ranges (N = 426 species) under a best-case scenario and a worst-case scenario. Generalized linear models were used to examine whether these changes varied according to region, conservation status, range extent and dominant habitat. Finally, we reclassified primate ranges based on different magnitudes of maximum temperature change, and quantified the proportion of ranges overall and of primate hotspots in particular that are likely to be exposed to extreme temperature increases. We found that, under the worst-case scenario, 74% of Neotropical forest-dwelling primates are likely to be exposed to maximum temperature increases up to 7°C. In contrast, 38% of Malagasy savanna primates will experience less pronounced warming of up to 3.5°C. About one quarter of Asian and African primates will face up to 50% crop expansion within their range. Primary land (undisturbed habitat) is expected to disappear across species' ranges, whereas secondary land (disturbed habitat) will increase by up to 98%. With 86% of primate ranges likely to be exposed to maximum temperature increases >3°C, primate hotspots in the Neotropics are expected to be particularly vulnerable. Our study highlights the fundamental exposure risk of a large percentage of primate ranges to predicted climate and LUC changes. Importantly, our findings underscore the urgency with which climate change mitigation measures need to be implemented to avert primate extinctions on an unprecedented scale.
灵长类动物正面临着迫在眉睫的灭绝危机，这是由广泛的栖息地丧失、土地利用变化和狩猎造成的。气候变化是另一个威胁，它单独或与其他驱动因素结合，可能会严重影响那些无法跟踪适宜环境条件的分类群。在这里，我们调查了灵长类动物与气候和土地利用/覆盖（LUC）变化相关的风险程度。我们采用了一种分析方法，客观地选择了一组气候情景，然后为 2050 年在最佳和最差情况下计算了这些情景下灵长类动物分布范围内的气候和 LUC 条件变化。我们使用广义线性模型来检查这些变化是否根据区域、保护状况、分布范围和主要栖息地而有所不同。最后，我们根据最大温度变化的不同幅度重新分类灵长类动物的分布范围，并量化了总体分布范围和特别是灵长类动物热点地区暴露于极端温度升高的比例。我们发现，在最坏的情况下，74%的新热带森林灵长类动物可能会暴露在高达 7°C 的最高温度升高之下。相比之下，38%的马达加斯加萨凡纳灵长类动物将经历不那么明显的升温，最高可达 3.5°C。大约四分之一的亚洲和非洲灵长类动物将面临其分布范围内高达 50%的作物扩张。预计物种分布范围内的原始土地（未受干扰的栖息地）将消失，而次生土地（受干扰的栖息地）将增加多达 98%。由于 86%的灵长类动物分布范围可能会暴露在最高温度升高>3°C 的环境中，新热带地区的灵长类动物热点地区预计将特别脆弱。我们的研究强调了很大一部分灵长类动物分布范围面临预测气候和 LUC 变化的基本暴露风险。重要的是，我们的研究结果强调了迫切需要实施气候变化减缓措施，以避免灵长类动物以前所未有的规模灭绝。
