Department of Biology, Geomatics and Landscape Ecology Laboratory, Carleton University, Ottawa, Ontario K1S 5B6, Canada.
Escuela Nacional de Estudios Superiores, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Morelia, Michoacán 37684, Mexico.
Proc Biol Sci. 2024 Oct;291(2032):20241905. doi: 10.1098/rspb.2024.1905. Epub 2024 Oct 2.
Identifying the main predictors of species' extinction risk while accounting for the effects of spatial and phylogenetic structures in the data is key to preventing species loss in tropical forests through adequate conservation practices. We recorded 22 705 precise geographical locations of primate occurrence across four major geographic realms (Neotropics, mainland Africa, Madagascar and Asia) to assess predictors of threat status using a novel Bayesian spatio-phylogenetic approach. We estimated the relative contributions of fixed factors (forest amount, body mass, home range, diel activity, locomotion, evolutionary distinctiveness and climatic instability) and random factors (space and phylogeny) to primate extinction risk. Precipitation instability increased the extinction risk in the Neotropics but decreased it in mainland Africa and Madagascar. Forest amount was negatively associated with extinction risk in all realms except Madagascar. Body mass increased the extinction risk in the Neotropics and Madagascar, whereas home range increased the extinction risk in mainland Africa and decreased it in Asia. Evolutionary distinctiveness negatively influenced extinction risk only in mainland Africa. Our findings highlight the importance of climate change mitigation and forest protection strategies. Increasing the protection of large primates and reducing hunting are also essential.
在数据中考虑空间和系统发育结构的影响,确定物种灭绝风险的主要预测因子,是通过适当的保护措施防止热带森林物种丧失的关键。我们记录了四个主要地理区域(新热带地区、非洲大陆、马达加斯加和亚洲)的 22705 种灵长类动物的确切地理位置,以使用新的贝叶斯空间-系统发育方法评估威胁状况的预测因子。我们估计了固定因素(森林面积、体重、栖息地范围、昼夜活动、运动方式、进化独特性和气候不稳定性)和随机因素(空间和系统发育)对灵长类动物灭绝风险的相对贡献。降水不稳定性增加了新热带地区的灭绝风险,但降低了非洲大陆和马达加斯加的灭绝风险。除了马达加斯加之外,森林面积与所有地区的灭绝风险呈负相关。体重增加了新热带地区和马达加斯加的灭绝风险,而栖息地范围增加了非洲大陆的灭绝风险,减少了亚洲的灭绝风险。进化独特性仅对非洲大陆的灭绝风险产生负面影响。我们的研究结果强调了减少气候变化和保护森林策略的重要性。增加对大型灵长类动物的保护和减少狩猎也是至关重要的。