Does China's Yangtze River Economic Belt policy impact on local ecosystem services?

The ecological protection of the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) is one part of China's national strategy, and to identify the spatiotemporal variation of ecosystem service values (ESV) and examine the YREB policies performances can provide effective knowledge and supports for making ecological protection policies. In this paper, the ESV of YREB's 11 units were measured based on equivalent factor value method. Panal data and regression discontinuity model were used to discuss the impact of the ecological protection policies issued 2012 and 2014 on the ESVs. The results showed that: (1) From 2009 to 2016, the total ESVs of the YREB increased from 617.49 billion USD to 844.84 billion USD, showing a pattern of slow increase (2009-2012), substantial growth (2012-2014) and stability of high level (2014-2016). Forestland and water body were the key types of land to ecological protection. For the average of all measured years, the two lands accounted for 43.24% of total ecological land and provided 82.36% of total ESVs;(2) Generally, all the units were closely related to the ecological protection policy and were positively affected. In the first period (2009-2012), the ESVs of 11 units had three statuses: declined, kept steady and moderately increased. After strong policy implementation, all units rose sharply (2012-2014) and maintained a steady increase at a high level (2014-2016); (3) Ecological protection policies have a significant positive effect on the ESVs. The policy in 2012 suppressed the downward trend of ESVs increase and the policy in 2014 had a positive impact to increase ESVs. This study proved that possible to achieve a win-win situation of urban development and ecological environmental protection by implementing ecological protection policies.