Fischhoff B, Furby L, Gregory R
Accid Anal Prev. 1987 Feb;19(1):51-62. doi: 10.1016/0001-4575(87)90017-0.
Making sound safety decisions requires accurate estimates of the costs of injuries and the benefits of their reduction. These estimates may be produced intuitively by citizens exposed to risk of injury, or formally, for analysts considering alternative safety policies. All such estimates rely on behavioral assumptions, regarding how people perceive and respond to to risks. They also rely on ethical assumptions, regarding how people should respond. The nature and validity of these assumptions are analyzed here, in order to provide a consumer's guide to techniques designed to evaluate risks and devise safety policies.
做出合理的安全决策需要准确估计伤害成本及其降低带来的益处。这些估计可能由面临受伤风险的公民凭直觉得出，或者由考虑替代安全政策的分析师以正式方式得出。所有此类估计都依赖于关于人们如何感知和应对风险的行为假设。它们还依赖于关于人们应该如何应对的伦理假设。在此分析这些假设的性质和有效性，以便为旨在评估风险和制定安全政策的技术提供一份消费者指南。
