A time-to-event analysis describing virologic response in patients with chronic hepatitis C infection.

The objective of this project was to describe longitudinal change in chronic hepatitis C virologic reponse using time-to-event (TTE) analysis and to identify patient characteristics that determine the dynamics of this change. We compiled demographic, clinical, and genetic data from 715 chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) patients treated with pegylated interferon (PEG-IFN) alfa-2a and ribavirin. TTE modelling described the time between antiviral treatment initiation and the first observation of undetectable HCV RNA. A lognormal TTE model was selected to describe time to first undetectable HCV RNA. The identified predictors of prolonged time to achieve undetectable HCV RNA include HCV genotype 1, low pre-treatment ALT level, older age, or with elevated baseline haemoglobin level. In conclusion, a cohort of patients with low probability of achieving SVR can be identified. This project identifies patients with a low risk of responding to PEG-IFN alfa-2a and ribavirin combination.