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新能源发展如何减少 CO2 排放:中国倒 U 型关系的经验证据。

How can new energy development reduce CO2 emissions: Empirical evidence of inverted U-shaped relationship in China.

机构信息

School of Economics and Management, Chongqing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Chongqing, China.

School of Economics and Management, Heilongjiang University, Harbin, China.

出版信息

PLoS One. 2023 Nov 28;18(11):e0294947. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0294947. eCollection 2023.

Abstract

This article is based on the statistical yearbook data of 30 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions in China (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan, and Tibet Autonomous Region) from 2000 to 2017, a total of 18 years of statistical yearbook data was used to conduct in-depth research on the reduction of CO2 emissions from the development of new energy in the region. First, it is proposed that the regional new energy development has a significant negative effect on CO2 emissions. Meanwhile, this impact has a significant time lag effect, and the development of new energy cannot be quickly and effectively applied in the short term to replace traditional fossil energy in the dynamic model. Therefore, there is a significant positive impact in the short term, but the significant negative effect of new energy development on CO2 emission can be shown in the long run. Secondly, the new energy development has a significant non-linear impact on CO2 emissions, showing an inverted U-shaped relationship, which confirms the existence of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) of CO2 emissions based on new energy development. Finally, in order to alleviate the continuous impact of national economic development on CO2 emissions, the DID model is used to prove that the level of technological innovation has a significant moderating effect on the CO2 emission reduction effect of new energy development, which confirms theoretically the importance of technological innovation in accelerating new energy substitution and improving energy efficiency.

摘要

本文基于中国 30 个省、直辖市和自治区(不包括香港、澳门、台湾和西藏自治区)2000 年至 2017 年的统计年鉴数据,利用 18 年的统计年鉴数据,深入研究了区域新能源发展对 CO2 排放的减排作用。首先,提出区域新能源发展对 CO2 排放具有显著的负向影响。同时,这种影响具有显著的时滞效应,在动态模型中,新能源的发展不能在短期内快速有效地应用来替代传统的化石能源。因此,在短期内会产生显著的正向影响,但从长期来看,新能源发展对 CO2 排放的显著负向影响是可以显现的。其次,新能源发展对 CO2 排放具有显著的非线性影响,呈现出倒 U 型关系,这证实了基于新能源发展的 CO2 排放环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)的存在。最后,为了缓解国家经济发展对 CO2 排放的持续影响,利用 DID 模型证明了技术创新水平对新能源发展的 CO2 减排效果具有显著的调节作用,从理论上证实了技术创新在加速新能源替代和提高能源效率方面的重要性。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/c259/10684066/75d2cb6d07f1/pone.0294947.g001.jpg

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