State Key Laboratory of Integrated Management on Pest Insects and Rodents, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 100101 Beijing, China.
Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis, Department of Biosciences, University of Oslo, N-0316 Oslo, Norway.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2019 Jun 11;116(24):11833-11838. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1901366116. Epub 2019 May 28.
Quantitative knowledge about which natural and anthropogenic factors influence the global spread of plague remains sparse. We estimated the worldwide spreading velocity of plague during the Third Pandemic, using more than 200 years of extensive human plague case records and genomic data, and analyzed the association of spatiotemporal environmental factors with spreading velocity. Here, we show that two lineages, 2.MED and 1.ORI3, spread significantly faster than others, possibly reflecting differences among strains in transmission mechanisms and virulence. Plague spread fastest in regions with low population density and high proportion of pasture- or forestland, findings that should be taken into account for effective plague monitoring and control. Temperature exhibited a nonlinear, U-shaped association with spread speed, with a minimum around 20 °C, while precipitation showed a positive association. Our results suggest that global warming may accelerate plague spread in warm, tropical regions and that the projected increased precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere may increase plague spread in relevant regions.
关于哪些自然和人为因素影响鼠疫的全球传播，定量知识仍然很少。我们利用 200 多年来广泛的人类鼠疫病例记录和基因组数据，估计了第三次大流行期间鼠疫的全球传播速度，并分析了时空环境因素与传播速度的关系。在这里，我们表明，两个谱系 2.MED 和 1.ORI3 的传播速度明显快于其他谱系，这可能反映了不同菌株在传播机制和毒力方面的差异。鼠疫在人口密度低、草地或林地比例高的地区传播最快，这些发现应在有效鼠疫监测和控制中加以考虑。温度与传播速度呈非线性 U 形关系，最小值约为 20°C，而降水则呈正相关。我们的研究结果表明，全球变暖可能会加速温暖热带地区鼠疫的传播，预计北半球降水增加可能会增加相关地区鼠疫的传播。
